The HyperTexts
Baseball Hall of Fame: The Best Candidates
by Michael R. Burch
Who are the best players not in the Baseball Hall of Fame, who should
be admitted? Who will be the top candidates for the Hall of Fame in the near future?
On this page I give quick overall rankings via categories like "Blasts from the
Past" and "Up-and-Coming Active Players," then I give more detailed player
capsules of the best candidates for the Hall of Fame, both eligible, ineligible
(for now), and still playing.
On the ballot in 2024 and most likely to be inducted soon, although not necessarily the best:
(#1) Adrian Beltre, (#2) Todd Helton, (#3) Billy Wagner, (#4) Andruw Jones, (#5)
Carlos Beltran, (#6) Gary Sheffield, (#7) Francisco Rodriguez, (#8) C. C.
Sabathia
(#9), Chase Utley, (#10) Bobby Abreu
Predictions:
I was correct that Scott Rolen would be the first person in the
previous version of list to be
inducted into the HOF, and that Todd Helton would be second in the 2023 voting.
I was also correct that Larry Walker would be inducted before his ten years ran
out, although it came down to the wire. I am now seven-for-eight on recent
picks: Rolen, David Ortiz and Derek Jeter (both of whom I considered overrated
but predicted would be first ballot inductees), Larry Walker, Ted Simmons,
Minnie Minoso and Tony Oliva, with Dick Allen being my only strike-out, but that
was the HOF's error, not mine. For 2024, I predict that Adrian Beltre, Todd
Helton and Billy Wagner will all be elected to the HOF. If they don't get
elected in 2024, they will all make strong showings and be elected in the near
future. I think Joe Mauer also has a good shot at induction, possibly even on
the first ballot.
Prediction notes: Todd Helton is #63 on the Bill James Hall of
Fame Monitor, ahead of Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, Mike Schmidt and Tris
Speaker. Did you know that Todd Helton started ahead of Peyton Manning at
quarterback at the University of Tennessee until Helton was injured and Manning
took over? Or that Helton still holds records for relief pitching at Tennessee?
The
Veterans Committee Classic/Contemporary candidates for 2024 are all managers,
executives and/or umpires, for which I have no rankings.
Current Hall of Fame candidate ranking based on merit except for "steroid monsters": (#1) Pete Rose, (#2) Shoeless Joe Jackson, (#3) Albert Pujols,
(#4) Mike Trout, (#5) Adrian Beltre, (#6) Curt Schilling, (#7) Justin Verlander,
(#8) Clayton Kershaw, (#9) Max Scherzer, (#10) "Bad" Bill Dahlen, (#11)
Todd Helton, (#12) Mookie Betts, (#13) Miguel Cabrera, (#14) Ichiro Suzuki, (#15)
Lou Whitaker, (#16)
Bobby Grich, (#17) Dick Allen, (#18) Jim McCormick, (#19) Zack Greinke, (#20) Joey Votto,
(#21) Reggie Smith, (#22) Andruw Jones, (#23) Billy Wagner, (#24) Don Mattingly
Other viable Hall of Fame candidates in alphabetical order:
Bobby Abreu, Sal Bando, Buddy Bell, Albert Belle, Ken Boyer, Kevin Brown, Will
Clark, Dave Concepcion, Curt Flood, David Cone, Willie Davis, Carlos Delgado,
Jim Edmonds, Dwight Evans, Wes Ferrell, George "The Destroyer" Foster, Steve
Garvey, Keith Hernandez, Orel Hershiser, Matt Holliday, Tommy John, Jeff Kent, Kenny Lofton,
Roger Maris, Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina, Thurman Munson, Dale Murphy, Graig Nettles,
Dave Parker, Buster Posey, Willie Randolph, Francisco Rodriguez, Jimmy Rollins, Rick Reuschel, Johan Santana, Luis Tiant,
Chase Utley
Blasts from the Past: (#1) Shoeless Joe Jackson, (#2) "Bad"
Bill Dahlen's 77.5 fWAR is the most of any position player not in the HOF, (#3)
Smoky Joe Wood, (#4) Jim McCormick had 265 wins with a 2.43 ERA, (#5) Sherry
Magee had 63.4 fWAR, (#6) Jack Glasscock had 60.1 fWAR, (#7)
George Van Haltren hit .316 and averaged 207 hits, 134 runs and 47 stolen bases
per 162 games, (#8) Tony Mullane had 284 wins with a 3.05 ERA, (#9) Tommy Bond
had 234 wins with a 2.31 ERA, (#10), Charlie Buffington had 233 wins with a 2.96
ERA, Ross Barnes (148 wRC+), Harry Stovey, Lave Cross (a great defensive player
with 1371 RBI), Tip O'Neill
Steroids/PED issues: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Alex
Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, Gary
Sheffield, Andy Pettitte, Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun
Other special cases: Carlos Beltran (sign stealing scandal
demotion), Bobby Bonds (will the father make the HOF before the son?), Ken
Griffey Sr. (will the father make the HOF after his son?), Omar Vizquel
(domestic abuse issues)
Overrated Hall-of-Famers and candidates: Harold Baines, Jack Morris, Gil Hodges,
Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki, David Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera, Yadier Molina, Steve Garvey, Dave Parker,
Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance
Hall-of-Famers if not for injuries or fatalities: Albert Belle,
Eric Davis, Nomar Garciaparra, Thurman Munson, Dale Murphy, Dustin Pedroia
Outside looking in, probably: Nelson Cruz, Andres Galarraga,
Adrian Gonzalez, Juan Gonzalez, Mark Grace, Brian McCann, John Olerud (unless
Keith Hernandez gets elected), Al Oliver, Miguel Tejeda (#96 on the Bill James
Hall of Fame Monitor), Bernie Williams (#112), Michael Young (#150)
Up-and-Coming Active Players: Ronald Acuna Jr., Jose Altuve,
Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, Aroldis Chapman, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Correa, Jacob deGrom
(started late, injuries, low wins), Rafael Devers, Freddie Freeman, Paul
Goldschmidt, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge (started late,
injuries), Francisco Lindor, Manny Machado, Shohei Ohtani, Salvador Perez, Jose
Ramirez, C. C. Sabathia, Chris Sale, Corey Seager, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton, Fernando Tatis
Jr., Trea Turner, Evan Longoria
Negro Leagues: John Donaldson (pre-Negro League), Home Run
Johnson (pre-Negro League), Dick Redding
In the next ranking, the length of time players have been rejected by the Hall
of Fame and how good they were both come into play:
The all-time Hall of Fame snubs: (#1) Shoeless Joe Jackson, (#2) "Bad" Bill Dahlen,
(#3) Pete Rose, (#4) Jim McCormick, (#5) Tony Mullane, (#6) Smoky Joe Wood, (#7)
Jack Glasscock, (#8) Tommy Bond, (#9) Charlie Buffington, (#10) Sherry Magee, George Van Haltren, Wes Ferrell, Buddy Bell, Luis Tiant, Ken Boyer, Dick
Allen, Reggie Smith, Willie Randolph, Lou Whitaker,
Bobby Grich, Andruw Jones
I have included players with known
steroid "issues" in a separate category.
Personally, I think they should all be judged by what they did on the
field because the Hall of Fame is far from a company of angels. Some of the best
HOF players were of questionable character and actions, including four
of the biggest names: Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Rogers Hornsby and Cap Anson. Perhaps put
an asterisk by their names, but keeping great players out of the HOF because of
"morals" makes no sense to me, considering some of the players who are already
in. In any case, here are my rankings, for whatever they're worth ...
• Top Ten Regardless of Era and "Issues": Pete Rose,
Shoeless Joe Jackson, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols,
Mike Trout, Adrian Beltre,
Curt Schilling, Justin Verlander/Clayton Kershaw
• Sure Bets: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Mike
Trout, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Adrian Beltre, Ichiro
Suzuki
• Getting Close: Mookie Betts, Yadier Molina, Jose Altuve,
Freddie Freeman, Nolan Arenado, Bryce Harper,
Zack Greinke
• Young Guns: Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr.,
Fernando Tatis Jr., Aaron Judge
• On the Bubble: Chase Utley, Joe Mauer, C. C. Sabathia
• Rising Stars: Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones,
Buster Posey, Bryce Harper
• Fallen Stars: Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Curt
Schilling, Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa
• Falling Stars: Robinson Cano, Carlos Beltran, Jose Altuve,
Omar Vizquel, Kris Bryant
•
Question Marks:
Bobby Abreu, Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor
• Short and Sweet (*): Smoky Joe Wood, Thurman Munson,
Albert Belle, Dizzy Trout, Bret Saberhagen, Dale Murphy, George Foster, Roger Maris, Don Mattingly, Eric Davis, Charlie Keller, Pete Browning,
Dave Stieb, Will Clark, Dwight Gooden, Gavvy Cravath, Mike Donlin, Benny Kauff, Dave Orr
(*) "Short and Sweet" players had shorter careers with super-high
peaks and/or suffered injuries in their primes. Why not induct the very best players with shorter careers, since that's
already been done with players like Sandy Koufax, Dizzy Dean, Ralph Kiner, Hack
Wilson, Hank Greenberg, Joe Gordon, Earle Combs, George Wright, Ross Youngs,
Kirby Puckett, Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella and Monte Irvin?
Please be sure to check out this capsule bio: Why Reggie Smith is a LOT
BETTER than many baseball fans believe.
PREDICTIONS FOR 2024: Todd Helton gets elected either this year
or before his time runs out. Adrian Beltre is a no-brainer,
but will he be a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer in 2024? My guess is a qualified
"probably yes" but he should make it sooner or later. Joe Mauer
could a first ballot inductee in 2024, but I wouldn't bet on it. Billy Wagner
either gets elected or continues to make headway. Andruw Jones either gets
elected or makes significant headway. Carlos Beltran is a bit of a mystery; his
fate depends on whether 25% or more of the HOF voters take his cheating
seriously. I think he stalls at some point, but that's just a guess.
My predictions for 2023 turned out to be pretty spot-on:
PREDICTIONS FOR 2023: Frankly, 2023 seems harder to predict than recent
years. Will Jeff Kent see a last-minute, Larry-Walker-ish surge in his final
year of eligibility? What about Billy Wagner in his eighth year, with just two
more ballots to go? Scott Rolen has the highest percentage (63.2%) of the
returning nominees and gained more than 10 percentage points over his 2022
results. Will Rolen continue rolling toward the honor roll (pardon the puns)?
Well, I am wont to go out on a limb, so these are my very early predictions
for 2023: I think Jeff Kent will fail to make the HOF while
Scott Rolen will either make it in 2023, or if not, before his eligibility is
up. I don't think Todd Helton will get elected in 2023, but he could start
making headway toward a future election. Ditto for Billy Wagner and Andruw
Jones. All could be helped by four consecutive weaker HOF classes, from
2020-2023. Omar Vizquel is going backwards with just 23.9% and now seems
unlikely to be enshrined. None of the 2023 newbies strike me as major candidates
for the HOF, with Carlos Beltran the best of the lot but with the dark cloud of
sign-stealing raining on his parade. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling and Sammy Sosa have
dropped off the ballot, thanks to baseball's morality police, and their votes
can now go toward electable candidates. So I see an opportunity for Kent, Rolen,
Helton and Wagner to make up ground.
PREDICTIONS FOR 2022: As I predicted, David Ortiz was elected to the Hall of
Fame on his first ballot. However, as with Derek Jeter I didn't agree that
Ortiz merited a first-ballot election, when better players remain unenshrined.
I called Ortiz "a bit Harold-Baines-ish" but predicted he would be a
first-ballot inductee nonetheless. I am six-for-seven on recent picks: Ortiz,
Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, Ted Simmons, Minnie Minoso and Tony Oliva, with Dick
Allen being my only strike-out, and that was the HOF's error, not mine. Thus I hope the HOF will consider
my new top ten forthwith! One of my top ten snubs,
the great Minnie Minoso,
was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee in the 2021 class, so
I have updated my top ten Hall of Fame
snubs. I had Tony Oliva in my "Short and Sweet" list and are happy to
remove him with his election to the HOF. Other MLB players elected include Gil
Hodges, Jim Kaat and Allie Reynolds, although I continue to maintain that
better players are being left out. Why? I was especially happy to see Buck
O'Neil honored. In addition to being a great baseball player in the Negro
Leagues, he was a fine gentleman and a wonderful spokesman for the game he loved
and knew so intimately.
2021 DEVELOPMENTS: Buster Posey was the fastest climber in my HOF rankings,
with his magnificent resurgence as an MVP candidate at age 34, after three
"down" years by his standards. But will his early retirement reduce
his HOF chances? Other "mature" players who helped their
HOF chances in 2021 include Joey Votto and Evan Logoria. I lobbied long and hard for Larry Walker to make the HOF
on his last try, and he did. I predicted that Derek Jeter would be elected on
his first try, and I was correct again, although that was an easy call.
However, I have Jeter ranked around 15th at shortstop and think a first-ballot
induction was more about popularity and an ultra-long career, and the counting
stats such a career generates, than true elite-ness. I had long lobbied for Ted Simmons,
who has more WAR (50.3) than seven HOF catchers, including Mickey Cochrane, Buck Ewing and Ernie Lombardi,
and ranks second at the position in hits (2,472), doubles (483) and RBI (1,389); third in games
played (2,456) and plate appearances (9.685); sixth in runs (1,074); ninth in
walks (855); and twelfth in homers (283). I had Simmons in my all-time top ten
catchers, after Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, Bill Dickey, Gary Carter, Ivan
Rodriguez, Carlton Fisk, Gabby Hartnett, Mike Piazza and Cochrane.
Did you know: Albert Belle averaged 40 homers and 130 RBI per 162 games
for a decade and had 100 or more RBI for nine consecutive seasons. He retired
early due to arthritis, but then so did Sandy Koufax. Todd Helton slugged .539,
which is higher than Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt and Mel Ott (and the latter
had a significant home field advantage). It wasn't "all about the thin air"
because Helton slugged .469 on the road, which is higher than Honus Wagner, Nap
Lajoie and Carl Yastrzemski slugged for their entire careers.
PLAYER CAPSULES
Needless to say, in a few years Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw will head the
list below. For now I have a separate category for younger players where I rank them
within their age groups by the WAR they've accumulated. Trout is so far ahead of
everyone in his age group that he seems to be playing an entirely different
game, on some planet where the laws of gravity don't apply. At the tender
age of 28 he'd already passed 180 hall-of-famers in WAR, most of them in half
the playing time or less. So it should come as no surprise that none of
Trout's peers are remotely close to him. And Trout keeps
widening the gap, with one 10-WAR season after another,
injuries aside.
Recently, I've been amused to hear alleged "experts" talk about Trout being in a
"slump" in 2019. They must not comprehend statistics like OBP, OPS+ and WAR,
because Trout's worst "slump" is better than nearly everyone else's best season
ever. From what I've read, he's never gone more than two games without getting
on base. What sort of "slump" is that? But in any case, I'm going to start off with
eligible players and players who should be eligible aside from highly dubious
"morality" issues other than PEDs, plus superstars who will be retiring soon. Then I will get to
Mr. Trout and explain why my WAR-per-age analysis makes me suspect he's an alien
...
No-Brainers
(#1) Pete Rose is the all-time leader in games played, winning games played,
plate appearances, at-bats, hits and times on base. Anyone who thinks he "wasn't
dynamic" hasn't been paying
attention. Rose's WAR7 puts him squarely between Al Simmons and Ralph Kiner, and
ahead of Goose Goslin, Tim Raines, Billy Williams, Joe Medwick and Willie
Stargell. If they were dynamic players, as they obviously were, then quite
obviously Rose was too. Yes, he gambled. So did Rogers Hornsby, whose bookie
sued him. Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker actually rigged a late-season game to get and
split player bonuses, then bet on it. Keeping Rose out of the HOF at
this point is a triumph of hypocritical puritanism over common sense. Rose
was super-productive in his time, He did exactly what he was supposed to
do, which was get on base and set the table for the Big Red Machine's stable of
sluggers. He scored LOTS of runs:
2,165 to be exact. He had more total bases than Gehrig, Foxx, Ott and Mantle.
Hell, he finished just 47 total bases short of Babe Ruth. Who cares if anyone
likes him? Lots of people didn't like Cobb and he was the first player elected
to the HOF. Pete Rose is a baseball immortal. Let him in!
(#2) Shoeless Joe Jackson. Ditto the argument above. Shoeless Joe Jackson has
the second-highest OPS+ and WAR per 162 games among right fielders, trailing only Babe
Ruth. He compares with Tris Speaker, who conspired with Ty Cobb to fix the game
I mentioned above. The Hall of Fame is not a Hall of Angels.
End the freakin' hypocrisy. Shoeless Joe Jackson is a baseball immortal. Let him in!
(#3) Albert Pujols should be a "mortal lock" as a first-ballot inductee into the HOF. He has 100
career WAR
to go with a glittering 148 OPS+. Even in his
declining years and with bad wheels The Machine continued to crank out 20-30 homers
and 80-100 RBI per year. Pujols compares with Jimmie Foxx, Mike Schmidt and
Frank Robinson as an all-time slugger. Pujols is still active as I write this.
One Foot in the Door
(#4) Adrian Beltre was one of the most productive third basemen of all time: 91.5 WAR,
3,166 hits, 477 homers, 1,707 RBI, 116 OPS+. Beltre was also exceptional
defensively, with five Gold Gloves. He compares with Ron
Santo but played longer and had more HR and RBI. He also compares favorably with a
recent inductee, Chipper Jones. Beltre will become eligible in 2024.
(#5 tie) Justin Verlander is looking more and more like a lock for the HOF: 74.3
WAR, 236-132, 3.29 ERA, 130 ERA+. He keeps putting more and more distance
between himself and his major pitching competitors: Curt Schilling, Clayton
Kershaw, et al. Verlander's third no-hitter puts him in a very select group of pitchers with
names like Ryan, Koufax and Feller. And as I update his capsule bio, in 2022 at
age 39, Verlander is 10-3 in 15 starts with a 2.03 ERA.
(#5 tie) Mad Max Scherzer also looks like a lock for the HOF and it's hard to
say whether he or Justin Verlander is the stronger HOF candidate: 71.7 WAR,
201-102, 3.11 ERA, 135 ERA+.
(#6) Reggie Smith is a LOT BETTER than most baseball fans probably think.
Here’s why: First, my favorite stat for comparing players is WAR per 162 games.
Some players piled up huge counting numbers, but how many games and at-bats did
it take them? WAR/162 tells us how effective players were. And Reggie Smith was
a top ten right fielder, according to WAR/162:
Right Field: Babe Ruth (10.48), Mookie Betts (8.66), Hank Aaron (6.70), Mel Ott
(6.56), Frank Robinson (6.00), Larry Walker (5.92), Elmer Flick (5.81), Roberto
Clemente (5.37), Reggie Smith (5.27), Harry Heilmann (5.20)
Reggie Smith’s career OPS+ of 137 is well above average for the HOF (where the
average OPS+ is around 125). That 137 is better than a host of HOFers, including
luminaries like George Brett, Home Run Baker, Joe Medwick, et al. And Smith was
far from a one-trick pony. He was a plus defender who won a Gold Glove, and he
stole 137 bases, so he had good speed as well. Roberto Clemente, who knew
something about strong arms, once said that Smith had the best arm in baseball.
According to David Halbertram, opposing players would gather around to watch him
make throws during pre-game warm-ups. Reggie Smith’s OPS+ is very similar to
those of Reggie Jackson, Vladimir Guerrero and Chuck Klein, but Smith was better
defender with a canon arm and above-average speed. He was as good on offense and
a better all-round player. Smith’s 64.6 career WAR puts him 15th among right
fielders. The top 13 are all in the HOF. There are 16 right fielders in the HOF
who have less WAR than Smith, and some of them substantially less, including
recent inductee Harold Baines (38.7). Another recent inductee, Guerrero, has
more respectable WAR (59.5), but still trails Smith by more than an all-star
year. But in any case, if Baines belongs in the HOF, then Smith definitely does.
Smith finished fourth in the NL MVP voting twice, despite playing on a loaded
Dodgers team with Steve Garvey, Ron Cey, Davey Lopes and Tommy John soaking up
votes. In 1977, Smith finished behind only George Foster (52 HR, 149 RBI), Greg
Luzinski (39 HR, 130 RBI), and Dave Parker (.338 BA, 215 hits). In 1978, Smith
finished behind only Parker, Garvey and Larry Bowa, and once again was splitting
votes with several teammates.
(#7) Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown in 2012 and was even better the
following year. Cabrera is still active but
has slipped a bit in these rankings due to reduced performance as he ages. I
find it amusing that some Cabrera fans think he is one of the all-time best
first baseman and a slam-dunk first ballot inductee. What follows is my argument for
Miguel Cabrera to be in the Willie McCovey class of sluggers. These players are
tied with an OPS+ of 147, which ranks 40th all-time: Willie McCovey, Willie
Stargell, Edgar Martinez, Jim Thome, Sam Thompson, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera. A
147 OPS+ is impressive, but I think these players have to be downgraded further
because they were mostly one-dimensional hitters who didn't run well, steal
bases, or add a lot defensively. Some were defensive liabilities. Therefore
players with somewhat lower OPS+ numbers are substantially above them in WAR.
For example, Eddie Collins (142), Albert Pujols (145), Eddie Mathews (143),
A-Rod (140), Paul Goldschmidt (141), et al. When I consider Cabrera's shorter
prime (just four consecutive years with 6.5 WAR or higher) and one-dimensional
play, I can't put him in the top 50 players, and even the top 100 seems like a
"stretch" (pardon the first base pun). These are the first basemen who rank
ahead of him in WAR7: Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Stan Musial, Johnny Mize, Hank
Greenberg, George Sisler, Roger Connor, Jeff Bagwell, Dan Brouthers, Frank
Thomas, Rafael Palmeiro, Eddie Murray, Todd Helton, Joey Votto. I would add Cap
Anson with 94.4 WAR and Jim Thome with 73.1 WAR and 612 homers. That puts
Cabrera around #15 in my personal rankings of first basemen. Cabrera's WAR7 of
44.8 is only slightly above average for HOF first basemen (42.7) and is almost
identical to Willie McCovey's. For me, Cabrera's closest HOF comparisons are
McCovey, Stargell and Martinez. That's very good, but not top 100.
(#8) Buster Posey had risen to a near tie with Miguel Cabrera in my HOF rankings,
for a simple reason. Posey compares better with the top ten catchers of all time
than Cabrera does with the top ten first basemen, although Cabrera has the more
impressive counting stats. Posey would rank #3
among HOF catchers in OPS+ with an impressive 129, #5 in WAR/162 with 5.3, and #8 in
WAR7 with 36.6. Posey compares favorably with Ted Simmons, who was
recently elected to the HOF, and with Mickey Cochrane. That puts him in my top ten
catchers. But will his shorter career cost him votes? Posey had only six seasons
with 140 or more games played. So I think Cabrera with his longer career has
much better election chances, although I like Posey a lot.
(#9) Todd Helton has a brilliant resume: 61.2 WAR, .316/.414/.539/.953, 369 HR, 1,406 RBI, 133 OPS+.
All the numbers are there, but are they enough to overcome the Denver "thin air" stigma?
Helton's 46.5 WAR7 puts him in the top ten at first base, meaning he had a
super-high peak. (That's quite a coincidence that Andruw Jones and Todd Helton
ended up side-by-side in my rankings, and had exactly the same WAR7!) Helton was
a three-time Gold Glove winner who finished with the second-most assists and third-most
double plays turned by a first baseman in MLB history. He compares with
Jeff Bagwell,
Roger Connor, George Sisler and
Willie McCovey. Helton was on 16.5% of ballots in his first year of eligibility
and is now up to 72.2% and trending in the right direction.
He's in a similar situation to Larry Walker and Walker's election may be a
very good sign for Helton. Bill James says Helton should be in the Hall of Fame,
even accounting for the "Denver effect." I agree. Helton’s road OPS of .855 is
higher than that of HOF first basemen like Orlando Cepeda, George Sisler, Gil
Hodges, Cap Anson, Eddie Murray, Ernie Banks, Rod Carew and Frank Chance, among
others. Helton’s road OPS is also higher than the career OPS of recent HOF
inductees Derek Jeter and Harold Baines, and Helton was a much better defender
than Baines (and Jeter as well, according to defensive stats).
Helton was very good away from home, so he shouldn’t be treated as a
pariah for doing so well at home. His .953 OPS would rank 14th among all HOFers
who played in the majors. Consider the only HOF names that rank above him:
Ruth, Ted Williams, Gehrig, Foxx, Greenberg, Hornsby, Mantle, DiMaggio, Musial,
Frank Thomas, his teammate Larry Walker, Mize, Thome. That's pretty heady
company, and Helton was a better defender than several names in that list. One
day they’re going to let the steroid monsters into the HOF, so it doesn’t make
any sense to penalize Helton for whatever legal advantage he enjoyed.
Bubble Boys: Outside Looking In
(#10) Andruw Jones 62.8 WAR, .254/.337/.486, 434 HR, 1,289 RBI, 152 steals, 111 OPS+. Andruw Jones offers
stellar defense with ten
Gold Gloves and tremendous power in his prime, but did his offense fizzle out too soon?
He started to struggle as a hitter at age 30 and would never reach 20
homers or 50 RBI afterward. Will voters remember his struggles and lackluster
.254 career batting average more than his
glory years? Jones's 46.5 WAR7 is ninth all-time among centerfielders, putting
him not-so-far behind Joe DiMaggio and Duke Snider. That is a high peak, indeed.
Jones was only at 7.5% in the 2019 voting, but has since risen to 58.1%, so he
remains a contender trending in the right direction with four more years to go.
(#11)
Billy Wagner 28.1 WAR, 422 saves, 2.21 ERA, 187 ERA+ Wagner's 187 ERA+ is better than every
HOF reliever not named Mariano Rivera. His 422 saves are sixth best in MLB
history. Wagner compares with
Lee Smith in career saves, and some of his other metrics are off
the charts. Among pitchers with at least 800 innings, Wagner’s strikeout rate of
11.9 per nine innings and his opponents' batting average of .187 are the best
ever. Wagner was at
16.7% of the vote in 2018, in a virtual tie with Helton, and is now up to 68.1%
and trending up. But time is starting to run out for Wagner, who will be in his
ninth year with just one more to go.
(#12) Zack Greinke 74.9 WAR, 223-141, 3.42 ERA, 123 ERA+. I am on the fence
about Greinke. He had two Cy-Young-class seasons with a 205 and 222 ERA+ and
three other top-ten seasons with an ERA+ between 129 and 145. The rest of his
career he has been more good than great. I would vote for several other pitchers
before Greinke.
(#13) Chase Utley 65.4 WAR, .275/.358/.465/.823, 117 OPS+ and 154 steals with a
phenomenal success rate. Utley's 49.3 WAR7 puts him ninth in the second base
ranks, just behind Rod Carew and ahead of Ryne Sandberg. Utley's 5.47 WAR
per 162 games is better than that of Sandberg, Carew, Robinson Cano and
Charlie Gehringer. Utley will become eligible in 2024.
Popularity Counts
These are four players with lower WAR who could leapfrog players above them.
(#14)
Ichiro Suzuki could certainly hit and run: 59.3 WAR, 3,089 hits, 509 steals, .311/.355/.402/.757, 107 OPS+.
Suzuki's slash line doesn't absolutely scream HOF, in my opinion. But the batting average,
hits, steals and ten Gold Gloves could get him admitted. And it doesn't hurt his
case that he's an iconic player—a Japanese superstar who
was the AL MVP in his rookie season, then went on to set the all-time record for
hits in a single season with 262. Suzuki may leapfrog several players above him
on this list. In fact, I would place him toward the top in terms of
"traditional" performance measures, popularity and "star appeal." Suzuki will become eligible in 2025.
(#15)
Joey Votto is still building his resume, but it already looks HOF-worthy: 64.8
WAR, .308/.424/.524/.948, 152 OPS+. Votto should be destined for the HOF with
that stellar slash line. His 152 OPS+ is higher than that of Honus Wagner, Nap
Lajoie, Ralph Kiner, and most of the HOF. It's also higher than all his
contemporaries other than Mike Trout, and that includes Albert Pujols and Miguel
Cabrera. Votto is still active.
(#16) Joe Mauer could really rake for a catcher: 55.0 WAR, .307/.390/.443/.833, 126 OPS+. As a catcher, the
position where he had his best years, Mauer compares with
Bill Dickey, Mickey Cochrane, Gabby Hartnett and Ernie Lombardi. Mauer will
become eligible in 2024.
(#17) C. C. Sabathia: 63.5 WAR, 251-161, 3.74 ERA, 116 ERA+. Sabathia is one of only three lefties with more than 3,000
strikeouts, and that
may add to his appeal for HOF voters. While Sabathia's 3.74 ERA seems high, in
ERA+ and wins he compares with Robin Roberts, Jim Bunning, Eppa Rixey and Red
Ruffing. Sabathia retired at the end of
the 2019 season. He feels like a long-shot right now.
Rounding Out the Top Twenty-Five
(#18) Carlos Beltran also has the stats: 69.6 WAR, 2,725 hits, 435 homers, 119
OPS+, and 316 steals with the highest success rate of all time for players with
more than 300 steals. Beltran and Andre Dawson are "slash twins." But Beltran
also compares with players who haven't made it yet, like Todd Helton and Bobby
Grich. His postseason heroics should help, as should
nine All-Star appearances and three Gold Gloves. On the other hand, his involvement in the
Astros' sign-stealing scandal will no
doubt hurt his chances. There are reports that Beltran "steamrolled" Astros
players who objected to the cheating. Will Beltran's prominent role
cost him his shot at the HOF? Time will tell, but right now I think Beltran has
dropped from "possible" to "iffy." He had 46.5 percent of the
votes in his first year of eligibility in 2023. If he can gain substantial
ground in 2024, his chances seem reasonably good.
(#19) Gary Sheffield took a major step forward, from 40.6% to 55.0% in his
ninth year of eligibility, but he only has one year to go and probably will run out of time. He has the offensive chops: 60.5 WAR, 140 OPS+, 509 HR, 1,676 RBI
... but does he have the votes? Because his name appeared on the Mitchell Report
it seems he has been lumped in with the other PED users, negatively impacting
his Hall of Fame chances.
(#20)
Omar Vizquel: 45.3 WAR, .272/.336/.352, 2,877 HITS, 1,445 RUNS, 82 OPS+. Vizquel
offers great defense with
11 Gold Gloves and the hits and runs help, but a truly lackluster OPS+ hurts his case. Vizquel was named on 42.8% of 2019 HOF ballots, and that was up from 37.0% in
2018, so he seemed to be trending positive. He jumped to 52.6% of the votes
in 2020, but then fell to 49.1% in 2021, and was down to 19.5% in 2023, so it
seems he's out of the running. An
investigation of domestic violence allegations may have been the final straw
with most electors.
(#21) "Bad" Bill Dahlen with 75.2 WAR should get some love from the Veterans
Committee, but so far nyet.
(#22) "Sweet" Lou Whitaker with 75.1 WAR should get the attention of the
Veterans Committee.
(#23) Bobby Grich with 71.1 WAR should also get the attention of the Veterans
Committee.
Also in the Running
(#24) Francisco Rodriguez had 437 saves, which is fourth all-time, with the top
three all being in the HOF. He had 23.9 WAR, which is strong for a reliever.
(#26) Curt Schilling should be in the HOF, but he took his name off the ballot,
then the Veterans Committee chose not to elect him, so who knows what will
happen with this baseball problem child? He may be in the same sort of limbo as
the PED users.
Players who remained alive with at least 5% of the votes: Andy Pettitte, Mark Buehrle, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu,
Jimmy Rollins
Top Newly Eligible Players by Year
The 2020 class had one sure bet and a bunch of likely misses:
(#1) Derek Jeter (72.4 WAR, 115 OPS+) was elected on his first ballot, as I expected and predicted
(#2) Bobby Abreu (60.0 WAR, 128 OPS+) remained eligible with 5.5% of the
vote
(#3) Jason Giambi (50.5 WAR, 440 homers, 139 OPS+, 21st all-time in secondary
average at .429, but has PED issues)
(#4) Cliff Lee (43.5 WAR, 143 wins)
(#5) Alfonso Soriano (28.2 WAR, 412 homers, 289 steals)
(#6) Paul Konerko (27.7 WAR, 439 homers)
(#7) Adam Dunn (17.4 WAR, 462 homers, 14th all-time in secondary average at .450)
In 2021, the top new candidates were Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle and Torii
Hunter, but none seem likely to get elected to me, or even to come reasonably
close.
In 2022, the top new candidates will be Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Mark
Teixeira and Jimmy Rollins. This is the final year of eligibility for Bonds,
Clemens, Schilling and Sosa. (Elsewhere I said that I don't think Ortiz should
be a first-ballot inductee, but I suspect that he will be, due to his
popularity and counting stats, a la Derek Jeter. Since A-Rod is the most
disreputable of the PED abusers, I don't see anyone from this class getting
elected other than Ortiz.)
In 2023, the strongest new candidates will be Carlos Beltran (70.1 WAR) and
Francisco Rodriguez (437 saves, which is fourth all-time, with the top three
being in the HOF). This is a weak class that could favor players like Jeff Kent
and Scott Rolen. Beltran is in a downward spin due to the sign-stealing scandal.
Rodriguez seems unlikely to muster much early-ballot
support. It's the last year of eligibility for Jeff Kent, who could get a
Larry-Walker-like final year boost. I think Kent should have a decent shot, but
only time will tell. (I later went out on a limb and predicted that Kent would
be elected in his final year on the ballot. However, this is not as strong a
vote of confidence as my previous seven votes.)
In 2024, we will have the best class of newbies in at least five years. The
strongest new candidates will be Adrian Beltre (a virtual HOF lock with 93.5
WAR), Chase Utley (64.5 WAR), Joe Mauer (55.2 WAR), David Wright (49.2 WAR),
Bartolo Colon (45.8 WAR), Matt Holiday (44.5 WAR) and Adrian Gonzalez (43.5
WAR). I would vote for Betlre, Utley and Mauer myself, but I'm not
confident the HOF voters are that wise. They seem to favor popularity over
performance, so Utley and Mauer may have to wait in line.
In 2025, the strongest new candidates will be C. C. Sabathia (62.5 WAR), Ichiro
Suzuki (60.0 WAR), Ian Kinsler (54.1 WAR), Dustin Pedroia (51.9 WAR) and Felix
Hernandez (50.2 WAR). I think Suzuki is likely to be a first-ballot inductee.
I would not vote for Sabathia myself, but he did reach important milestones,
including a Cy Young Award, 250 wins and 3,000 strikeouts. As long as HOF voters
remain locked in on milestones, counting stats and popularity, rather than peak
performance, the HOF will continue to favor the Harold Baines-es and C. C.
Sabathias over the Chase Utleys and Chase Utleys.
Hall of Fame Projections through 2023
The hardest thing to predict is when the first player with PED issues gets
elected. Presumably the dam will then burst. Since it's hard to say when the
dam breaks, I am assuming they will all be nixed for now.
(+) Derek Jeter (2020, first ballot, I was correct)
(+) Larry Walker (2020, final ballot in a squeaker, I was correct again)
(+) David Ortiz (2022, possible first ballot, correct again)
(+) Ichiro Suzuki (2023, possible first ballot)
(+) Jeff Kent (time is running out, but a final burst
of support may win the day, I see a squeaker but have voted for "in")
(+) Scott Rolen (2023+, I think he has a good shot and is gaining momentum, but it may be a close call)
(+) Todd Helton (2023+, possibly helped by Larry Walker's election)
(+) Billy Wagner (2023+, great stats and he's starting to gain momentum)
(?) Curt Schilling (I thought Schilling could gain entry if he played his cards
correctly, but apparently he decided to fold)
(?) Omar Vizquel (maybe, maybe not, I am guessing not)
(?) Andruw Jones (qualified, but quite a bit of room to make up)
(?) Chase Utley (will he have enough initial votes to build momentum?)
(-) Barry Bonds
(-) Roger Clemens
(-) Manny Ramirez
(-) Sammy Sosa
(-) Gary Sheffield
(-) Andy Pettitte
(-) Mark Buehrle 11.0% (1st-timer)
(-) Torii Hunter 9.5% (1st-timer)
(-) Bobby Abreu 8.7%
(-) Tim Hudson 5.2% (1st-timer)
(-) Carlos Beltran (I have downgraded Beltran's chances due to the
sign-stealing stigma)
(-) Cliff Lee
(-) Alfonso Soriano
(-) Francisco Rodriguez
(-) Bartolo Colon (Shades of Jamie Moyer!)
Eligible Players with PED Issues, at some Unknown Point in the Future
(+)
Barry Bonds (Mortal lock, when the time comes)
(+)
Roger Clemens (Mortal lock, when the time comes)
(+)
Alex Rodriguez (Mortal lock, when the time comes)
(?)
Manny Ramirez (He has the numbers, but does he have the votes?)
(?)
Gary Sheffield (He has the numbers, but does he have the votes?)
(-)
Sammy Sosa (I'm not sure he'll be elected, because he was not on a HOF track
before using PEDs)
(-)
Andy Pettitte (Maybe not)
(-)
Jason Giambi (Probably not)
The Best HOF Candidates Including Players Still Active and/or Eligible
w/o PED Issues
(#1) Mike Trout, (#2) Albert Pujols, (#3) Clayton Kershaw, (#4) Mookie Betts,
(#5) Adrian Beltre, (#6) Curt Schilling, (#7) Justin Verlander, (#8) Zack
Greinke, (#9) Max Scherzer, (#10) Miguel Cabrera, (#11) Chase Utley, (#12) Todd
Helton, (#13) Scott Rolen, (#14) Billy Wagner, (#15) Joe Mauer, (#16) Joey
Votto, (#17) Andruw Jones, (#18) Butch Posey, (#19) Ichiro Suzuki, (#20) Evan
Longoria, (#21) Yadier Molina, (#22) David Ortiz, (#23) Jeff Kent, (#24) Chris
Sale, (#25) Ian Kinsler, (#26) Carlos Beltran, (#27) Bobby Abreu, (#28) Craig
Kimbrel, (#29) C. C. Sabathia, (#30) Omar Vizquel
The Best Hall of Fame Candidates by Position, Regardless of Era
Catcher: Joe Mauer (55.0), Wally Schang
(48.0), Gene Tenace (46.8), Thurman Munson (46.1), Bill Freehan (44.8), Jorge Posada
(42.8)
First Base: Albert Pujols (100.1), Miguel Cabrera (69.4), Todd Helton
(61.2), Keith
Hernandez (60.4), Joey Votto (58.9), John Olerud (58.2), Will
Clark (56.5)
Second Base: Lou Whitaker*** (75.1), Bobby Grich (71.1), Willie Randolph (65.9), Chase Utley
(65.4), Ian Kinsler (57.0), Jeff Kent (55.4), Dustin Pedroia (51.7)
Shortstop: Bill Dahlen (75.4), Jack Glasscock (62.0), Bert
Campaneris (53.1), Jim Fregosi (48.7), Vern Stephens (45.5), Omar Vizquel
(45.6), Dave Concepcion
(40.1)
Third Base: Adrian Beltre (95.6), Scott Rolen (70.0), Graig Nettles (68.0),
Buddy Bell (66.3), Ken Boyer (62.8), Sal Bando (61.5), Darrell Evans (58.8)
Left Field: Pete Rose* (79.7), Sherry Magee (59.3), Indian Bob Johnson
(57.3),
Lance Berkman (52.1), Roy White (46.8), George Foster
(44.2)
Center Field: Mike Trout** (150 est.), Carlos Beltran (69.6), Kenny Lofton
(68.3), Willie Davis (60.7), Jim Edmunds (60.4), Andruw
Jones (62.8), Johnny Damon (56.0)
Right Field: Shoeless Joe Jackson (62.2), Dwight Evans
(67.1), Reggie Smith (64.6), Bobby Abreu (60.0), Ichiro Suzuki (59.4), Bobby
Bonds (57.9)
Designated Hitter: David Ortiz (55.4), Jose Cruz (54.4), Jack Clark (53.1), Fred
McGriff (52.6), Charlie Keller (43.1)
Starting Pitcher: Curt Schilling (79.5), Jim McCormick (76.2), Rick Reuschel
(69.5), Zack Greinke (69.2), Kevin Brown (67.8),
Tony Mullane (66.5), Luis Tiant (66.0), Clayton Kershaw (65.3)
Relief Pitcher: Billy Wagner (27.7), Joe Nathan (26.7), Dan Quisenberry
(24.7), Francisco Rodriguez (23.9), Jonathan Papelbon
(23.5), John Franco (23.4), Craig Kimbrel (20.1)
* Pete Rose could make the Hall of Fame at five different positions: first,
second, third, left or right. He played at least 500 games at each position and
was an all-star at all five. He also played center at times, and he was
baseball's last player-manager.
** Although Mike Trout is still a relative babe in the woods, having just
completed his age 26 season in 2018, he has already passed most Hall of Fame
centerfielders in WAR and seems destined to challenge Willie Mays for all-time supremacy
at the position.
*** I have Lou Whitaker as one of my top ten HOF snubs. He’s a top ten second
baseman according to WAR, and 11th in runs, 11th in homers, 13th in dWAR, 16th
in hits, with 5 all-star selections, 4 silver sluggers, 3 gold gloves.
These are other fan favorites according to Ranker
and other sources. Please note that the "fan favorites" tend to favor players
for larger-market cities like New York, Los Angeles and Detroit. Some of the
higher-WAR players have been linked to PEDs, and that has kept them out HOF to
date. Fan favorites include: Barry Bonds (162.8), Roger Clemens (139.2), Alex
Rodriguez (117.8), Rafael Palmeiro (71.9), Manny Ramirez (69.4), David Cone
(62.3), Mark McGwire (62.2), Tommy John (61.5), Gary Sheffield (60.5), Andy
Pettitte (60.2), Bret Saberhagen (58.8), Sammy Sosa (58.6), Robin Ventura
(56.1), Orel Hershiser (56.0), Jim Wynn (55.9), Chet Lemon (55.6), Vada Pinson
(54.3), Ron Cey (53.8), Jerry Koosman (53.6), Dwight Gooden (52.9), Cesar Cedeno
(52.8), Norm Cash (52.0), Fred Lynn (50.2), David Wright
(50.4), Dizzy Trout (49.6), Bernie Williams (49.6), Mickey Lolich (48.0), Ron
Guidry (47.8), Dale Murphy (46.5), Vida Blue (45.1), Nomar Garciaparra (44.2),
Jack Morris (43.4), Amos Otis (42.8), Don Mattingly (42.4), Fernando Valenzuela
(41.4), Andy Messersmith (40.1), Albert Belle (40.1), Dave Parker (40.1), Smoky
Joe Wood (40.0), Maury
Wills (39.7), Eddie Stanky (39.3), Kirk Gibson (38.4), Roger Maris (38.2), Bill
Madlock (38.2), Steve Garvey (38.1), Don Newcombe
(37.6), Eric Davis (36.1), Riggs Stephenson (32.1), Elston Howard (27.0)
Tommy John: I’m a bit iffy on Tommy John. His 111 ERA+ doesn’t scream HOF for
me. He’s 237th in ERA+, 169th in WAR7 and 315th in WAR/162. The last two tell me
that he didn’t have a high peak but just pitched a LONG time to acquire all
those wins and WAR. But considering some of the other pitchers in the HOF, like
Jack Morris recently and Red Ruffing, et al, earlier, a case may be made. But
the HOF starts to look like the Hall of the Slightly Above Average.
Ranking Modern Players as Hitters by wRC+5
This is a ranking of hitters by the wRC+ of their five best seasons, with
"a very straightforward and conservative adjustment for era" by Eric M. Van. He
comments that "Ruth, Williams, Hornsby, Mantle, and Gehrig really stand out from
the pack; the gap between #5 and #6 is as large as the spread from #6 to #13."
Here are the next 10 players:
181 Barry Bonds before steroids
179 Mike Trout
179 Frank Thomas
178 Jimmie Foxx
178 Stan Musial
178 Albert Pujols
178 Mark McGwire (*)
174 Miguel Cabrera
173 Frank Robinson
172 Hank Aaron
172 Manny Ramirez (*)
172 Jason Giambi (*)
(*) PED issues
As overall players, Trout climbs because of his superior efficiency as a
base-stealer and base-runner and because he's a better defender at a premium
defensive position, while Pujols and Cabrera drop. This is how I rank the
players overall, dropping Bonds because for HOF purposes I cannot separate him
from his PED issues:
179 Mike Trout
178 Hank Aaron
177 Stan Musial (extra points for playing multiple positions)
177 Jimmie Foxx (extra points for playing multiple positions)
176 Albert Pujols
173 Frank Robinson
172 Frank Thomas
171 Miguel Cabrera
??? Barry Bonds (*)
??? Mark McGwire (*)
??? Manny Ramirez *)
??? Jason Giambi (*)
(*) PED issues
Passovers: The best player for each team who has been "passed over" by
the HOF so far, without PED issues, with career WAR in parentheses
Reds: Pete Rose (79.7),
George Foster (44.2), Dave Concepcion (40.1), Eric Davis (36.1)
Cubs: Bill Dahlen (75.4), Rick Reuschel (69.5), Mark Grace (46.4), Derek
Lee (34.6), Riggs Stephenson (32.1)
Tigers: Lou Whitaker (75.1), Norm Cash (52.0), Dizzy Trout (49.6), Mickey Lolich
(48.0), Bill Freehan (44.8)
Angels: Bobby Grich (71.1), Chuck Finley (52.2), Jim Fregosi (48.7), Tim Salmon (40.6)
Indians: Kenny Lofton (68.3), Wes Ferrell (60.7), Omar Vizquel (45.6), Albert Belle (40.1, 144 OPS+)
Yankees: Graig Nettles (68.0), Willie Randolph (65.9), Roy White (46.8), Don Mattingly (42.4),
Roger Maris (38.2)
Rangers: Kevin Brown (67.8), Buddy Bell (66.3), Juan Gonzalez (38.7), Josh
Hamilton (28.3), Michael Young (24.6)
Red Sox: Dwight Evans (67.1), Luis Tiant (66.0), Nomar Garciaparra (44.2), Smoky
Joe Wood (40.0)
Cardinals: Ken Boyer (62.8), Jim Edmunds (60.4), Keith Hernandez (60.4)
Mets: David Cone (62.3), John Olerud (58.2), Daryl Strawberry (42.4,
138 OPS+)
White Sox: Shoeless Joe Jackson (62.2, 170 OPS+)
Athletics: Sal Bando (61.5), Indian Bob Johnson (57.3), Bert Campaneris
(53.1)
Dodgers: Tommy John (61.5), Willie Davis (60.7), Ron Cey (53.8), Steve Garvey (38.1)
Phillies: Sherry Magee (59.3)
Royals: Bret Saberhagen (58.8), Amos Otis (42.8)
Braves: Darrell Evans (58.8), Dale Murphy (46.5)
Giants: Will Clark (56.5, 137 OPS+), Eddie Stanky (39.3)
Rays: Fred McGriff (52.6)
Astros: Lance Berkman (52.1, 144 OPS+)
Diamondbacks: Luis Gonzalez (51.8)
Browns: Vern Stephens (45.5)
Twins: Johan Santana (51.7)
Blue Jays: Carlos Delgado (44.4, 138 OPS+)
Padres: Adrian Gonzalez (42.2)
Orioles: Mark Belanger (40.8), Boog Powell (39.0, 134 OPS+)
Pirates: Dave Parker (40.1), Bill Madlock (38.2)
Nationals: Tim Wallach (38.5)
Marlins: Hanley Ramirez (37.9)
Brewers: Cecil Cooper (36.0)
Rockies: Andres Galarraga (31.7)
Mariners: Jay Buhner (23.0)
Bill James Hall of Fame Candidates
These are players Bill James has on the cusp of the HOF, with his personal vote:
Dan Quisenberry (24.7 "yes"), Dave Parker (40.1
"maybe"), Steve Garvey (38.1 "probably not"), Tommy John (61.5 "no"), Dave
Concepcion (40.1 "no")
However, Ryan Pollack of Beyond the Box Score called Dave Concepcion a
"pretty bad snub" so the experts don't always agree.
Highest Hall of Fame Monitor Ratings
The Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor is an "early indicator" of which players
have the best chance of making the Baseball Hall of Fame. Right now, according
to comments made by Bill James about the players in the previous section, it
seems there is a "cusp" around 125. The fact that Mike Trout ranks as high as he
does in his age 27 season is truly astounding!
Albert Pujols (339), Pete Rose (311),
Miguel Cabrera (263), Ichiro Suzuki (235), Todd Helton (175),
David Ortiz (171), Adrian Beltre (163), Yadier Molina (160),
Albert Belle (135), Don Mattingly (134), Bernie Williams
(134), Steve Garvey (131), Mike Trout (129), Carlos Beltran
(126), Dave Parker (125), Juan Gonzalez (123), Jeff Kent
(123), Shoeless Joe Jackson (122), Jimmy Rollins (121), Omar Vizquel (120), Al
Oliver (117), Jose Altuve (116), Dale Murphy (116), Andres
Galarraga (114), Magglio Ordonez (114), Nomar Garciaparra
(113), Tip O'Neill (113), Michael Young (112), Carlos Delgado (110), Matt
Holiday (110), Andruw Jones (109), Edgar Renteria (109), Mark Teixeira (109),
Jason Giambi (108), Jason Kendall (108), Ryan Braun (107), Dave Concepcion
(107), Lance Parrish (107), Maury Wills (104), Dick Groat (103), Harvey Kuenn
(100), Fred McGriff (100)
Other Considerations for this List
Still in contention, based on the 2019 HOF voting: Curt Schilling (60.9%), Roger
Clemens (59.5%), Barry Bonds (59.1%), Omar Vizquel
(42.8%), Manny Ramirez (22.8%), Jeff Kent (18.1%), Scott Rolen (17.2%), Billy
Wagner (16.7%), Todd Helton (16.5%), Gary Sheffield (13.6%), Andy Pettitte
(9.9%), Sammy Sosa (8.5%), Andruw Jones (7.5%)
Highest WAR of unelected players regardless of PED and eligibility issues: Barry
Bonds (162.8), Roger Clemens (139.2), Alex Rodriguez (117.8), Albert Pujols
(100.1), Adrian Beltre (95.6), Pete Rose (79.7), Curt Schilling (79.5), Jim
McCormick (76.2), Bill Dahlen (75.4), Mike Trout
(73.5 and climbing rapidly), Rafael
Palmeiro (71.9), Bobby Grich (71.1), Scott Rolen (70.2), Justin Verlander
(69.8), Miguel Cabrera
(69.7), Carlos Beltran (69.6), Rick Reuschel (69.5), Manny Ramirez (69.4), Zack Greinke
(69.2), Robinson Cano
(68.6), Kenny Lofton (68.3), Graig Nettles (68.0), Kevin Brown (67.8), Dwight
Evans (67.1), Tony Mullane (66.5), Buddy Bell (66.3),
Luis Tiant (66.0), Willie Randolph (65.9), Clayton Kershaw
(65.6), Chase Utley (65.4), Reggie Smith (64.6), C.C. Sabathia (63.5), Ken Boyer
(62.8), Andruw Jones (62.8), David Cone (62.3), Shoeless Joe Jackson (62.2),
Mark McGwire (62.2), Jack Glasscock (61.6), Sal Bando (61.5), Tommy John (61.5), Todd Helton
(61.2), Tommy Bond (60.9), Charlie Buffington (60.7), Willie Davis (60.7), Wes
Farrell (60.7), Gary Sheffield (60.5), Jim Edmonds (60.4), Keith Hernandez
(60.4), Andy Pettitte (60.2), Bobby Abreu (60.0)
Newbies eligible in 2020 or soon thereafter who are
not on the list: Bobby Abreu (60.0),
Mark Buehrle (59.2), Tim Hudson (58.1), Jason Giambi (50.5), Torii Hunter (50.1), Cliff Lee (43.5), Rafael
Furcal (39.4), Eric Chavez (37.5), Josh Beckett (35.6), Alfonso Soriano (28.8), Paul Konerko (27.7), Adam Dunn (17.4)
Still active: Albert Pujols (100.3), Mike Trout (73.5), Zack Greinke (70.7),
Justin Verlander (69.8), Miguel Cabrera (69.5), Robinson Cano (69.4), Clayton Kershaw (67.7), C.C. Sabathia (63.0),
Joey Votto (60.3), Max Scherzer (60.1), Cole Hamels (59.3), Ian Kinsler (57.2), Evan
Longoria (54.1), Dustin Pedroia (51.7), Felix Hernandez (50.6), Ryan Braun (47.7),
Curtis Granderson (47.2), Jon Lester (45.7), Ben Zobrist
(45.3),
Chris Sale (45.1), Troy Tulowitzki (44.2), Josh Donaldson (43.9), Andrew
McCutcheon (43.7), Paul Goldschmidt (42.7), Buster Posey (41.9), Mookie Betts
(41.3), Brett Gardner (40.8), Yadier Molina (40.0), Giancarlo Stanton (39.8), David
Price (39.6), Adam Wainwright (39.4), Russell Martin (38.1), Jose Altulve
(38.0), Nolan Arenado (37.6), Freddie Freeman (37.4), Nelson Cruz (37.2),
Madison Bumgarner (36.9), Manny Machado (36.8), Andrelton Simmons (36.5), Jason
Heyward (36.2), Lorenzo Cain (36.1), Alex Gordon (36.1), Bryce Harper (30.3)
The Hall of Fame's Near Misses since 1980
These are the HOF voting percentages for notable players no longer eligible for
"regular" HOF election who received more than 1% of the votes in the years they
dropped out. In many cases the percentage is the player's highest vote count,
when I was able to determine it, but it was not a perfect process. However, I
believe the results show roughly which players came the closest to being
enshrined and compare them to other great players who didn't get as much "love"
from voters. It seems playing in New York or Los Angeles may be a factor, as
noted below ...
Roger Maris (43.1%) *NY*
Steve Garvey (42.6%) *LA*
Bill James has Garvey on the cusp of HOF credentials, but says he wouldn't vote
for Garvey himself.
Maury Wills (40.6%) *LA*
Fred McGriff (39.8%)
Harvey Kuenn (33.9%)
Tommy John (31.7%) *LA*
Luis Tiant (30.9%)
Don Mattingly (28.2%) *NY*
Ken Boyer (25.5%)
Mickey Lolich (25.5%)
Dave Parker (24.5%)
Mark McGwire (23.7%)
Dale Murphy (23.2%)
Lew Burdette (23.2%)
Elston Howard (20.7%) *NY*
Rafael Palmeiro (17.6%)
Dave Concepcion (16.9%)
Curt Flood (15.1%)
Orel Hershiser (11.2%) *LA*
Vada Pinson (10.9%)
Bernie Williams (9.6%) *NY*
Albert Belle (7.7%)
George Foster (6.9%)
Thurman Munson (6.5%) *NY*
Ken Griffey Sr. (4.7%)
Graig Nettles (4.7%) *NY*
Fred Lynn (4.7%)
Keith Hernandez (4.3%)
Bobby Bonds (4.2%)
Juan Gonzalez (4.0%)
Lou Whitaker (2.9%)
Others with more than 1% of votes: Michael Young, Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejeda,
Roy Oswalt, Johan Santana, Jamie Moyer, Johnny Damon, Jorge Posada, Jim Edmonds,
Nomar Garciaparra, Carlos Delgado, Hideo Nomo, Moises Alou, Kenny Lofton, Sandy
Alomar, Julio Franco, David Wells, Vinny Castilla, Tim Salmon, Kevin Brown, Tino
Martinez, Andres Galarraga, Robin Ventura, Mark Grace, David Cone, Matt
Williams, Mo Vaughn, Paul O'Neill, Bret Saberhagen, Jose Canseco, Will Clark,
Dwight Gooden, Willie McGee, Ozzie Guillen, Hal Morris, Jim Abbott, Darryl
Strawberry, Fernando Valenzuela, Joe Carter, Dennis Martinez, Dave Stieb, Darryl
Kile, Dave Stewart, Ron Guidry, Lance Parrish, Tom Henke, Rusty Staub, Dwight
Evans, Kirk Gibson
Special Cases—Let Them In!!!
Smoky Joe Wood (40.0 WAR) is seventh all-time with an otherworldly 146 ERA+ and he had a
staggering 117 wins by age 25 despite only reaching 200 innings twice. What on
earth would he have done if he had been healthy? The mind boggles. Smoky Joe got
his nickname because his fastball—said to have been faster
then Walter Johnson's (including by the Big Train himself)—sizzled as though
burning through the air. The only starting pitchers with a better ERA+
than Smoky Joe are Clayton Kershaw, Pedro Martinez, Lefty Grove, and Walter
Johnson. When the first all-star game was organized in 1912 to benefit the
family of Adie Joss after Joss's untimely death, Smoky Joe started the game and
Walter Johnson relieved him. Let's stick that in our pipes and smoke it. After serious injuries cost him two years
in his prime and left him unable to pitch, Smoky Joe became an outfielder and hit .283
for the rest of his career. But it understandably took him some time to really excel as
a batter. He hit .366 at age 31, drove in 92 runs at age 32, then retired. He
could have been the greatest pitcher of all time, if he hadn't had such bad
luck. But please consider what he did accomplish. How many pitchers could take
two years off, then return to the majors to hit .366 and drive in 92 runs? Only
a guy named Ruth did anything like that, and he was healthy. What Smoky
accomplished was truly incredible. He has more WAR (40.0) than hall-of-famers
like Hack Wilson, Harold Baines, Lefty Gomez, George Kell, Roy Campanella, and
quite a few others. And he did it in a LOT fewer games. He only played two full seasons at his best position. When
he was able to pitch, he was a superstar for the ages. When he couldn't pitch,
he became the best-hitting ex-pitcher of all time not named Babe Ruth. Let him in!!!
Thurman Munson (46.1 WAR) died prematurely in a plane crash, and compares with a HOF
catcher, Roy Campanella, whose career was also cut short. Munson's 5.25 WAR per 162
games is third among catchers, after Johnny Bench and Mickey Cochrane. In his
brief career Munson was a seven-time All-Star, three-time Gold Glove winner, and
one-time MVP. Let him in!!!
Bret Saberhagen amassed 58.8 WAR and had a record of 167-117 despite missing
large parts of six seasons due to injuries. His glittering 126 ERA+ puts him in
a very select group with Bob Gibson (127), Tom Seaver (127), Justin Verlander
(126), Lefty Grove (125), Jim Palmer (125), John Smoltz (125) and Dazzy Vance
(125). Saberhagen's situation is similar to that of Sandy Koufax, Dizzy Dean and
Addie Joss, and Saberhagen has more wins and more WAR, so let him in!!!
For nearly a decade, Dale Murphy (46.5 WAR) was either the best major
league player, or one of the very best. He was a two-time NL MVP, a
seven-time All-Star, a five-time Gold Glove winner, and the winner of four
Silver Sluggers. Other players have been voted into the Hall of Fame for a
decade of excellence or less: for instance, Ralph Kiner, Hack Wilson, Joe
Gordon, Dizzy Dean, Sandy Koufax, Candy Cummings, Al Spalding, Addie Joss, Amos
Rusie, Joe McGinnity, Monte Irvin, Jackie Robinson and Roy Campanella. Murphy
had more homers and RBI than Kiner and Wilson, and was a better
defender and base-stealer. Sandy Koufax was only "the Left Hand of God" for six
brilliant seasons. Candy Cummings and Monte Irvin had five superior seasons,
Hack Wilson and Roy Campanella six, Amos Rusie and Dizzy Dean seven, Al Spalding
and Ross Youngs eight, Addie Joss and Joe Gordon nine, Joe McGinnity and Ralph
Kiner ten. Why not be fair and take into account how good Dale Murphy was in his
prime?
The same argument can be made for George "The Destroyer" Foster (44.2
WAR), who terrorized
NL pitchers for a decade as the cleanup hitter for the fabled Big Red Machine.
In 1977, Foster had 52 homers, 149 RBI and 388 total bases. Was he the last major
leaguer to hit 50 homers without "special sauce"? Foster was the only
NL-er with 50 homers from 1966 until a juiced-up Mark McGwire hit 70 in 1998.
For a span of 32 years, with competition like Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Willie
McCovey, Mike Schmidt, Dave Kingman and Johnny Bench, only The Destroyer managed
the feat, and he followed up with 40 more dingers in 1978. So he hit nearly 100
in a two-year span. Foster is the only NL-er to win three consecutive RBI titles
(1976-1978) since Joe Medwick in 1938. For those three years he averaged 40
homers and 130 RBI, during a down time for hitters. Foster was the 1977 NL MVP
and finished 1-2-3-6-12 in the MVP voting, so he was no flash in the pan. He
also led NL left fielders in fielding percentage four times. If elected, Foster
would rank seventh among HOF left fielders in homers (348) and eleventh in RBI
(1,239) and slugging percentage (.480). Foster's WAR7 puts him squarely
between Willie Stargell and Jim Rice (a very high peak indeed). The last time I
counted, there were 32 HOF outfielders who didn't strike me as better than
Foster; the majority of them seemed less good. The only slugging RBI types among the left
fielders markedly better than Foster, in my opinion, were Ted Williams, Carl
Yastrzemski, Al Simmons, Goose Goslin, Stargell, Billy Williams and Ed
Delahanty. That leaves a sizeable list of HOF left fielders with fewer homers and RBI
than Foster, and below him in WAR7. Foster's OPS+ is around the HOF average at a healthy
126. If I give him credit for the fact that he did more in fewer at-bats than
most of his peers, he looks even better. Why is Foster a notch below Rice in
homers and RBI? Well it was hard for him to play left field when it was being
manned by 17-time all-star Pete Rose! The Big Red Machine was blessed with a
two-decade unbroken string of excellent outfielders: Frank Robinson, Vada
Pinson, Rose, Ken Griffey, et al. When Rose moved to third, Foster was 26 and
he only played full-time for ten years. But his
162-game average was 29 homers and 102 RBI. Not many outfielders
can say that. Billy Williams averaged 28/96, Carl Yastrzemski 22/90 and Reggie Jackson 32/98.
They were great players, and Foster was in the same class for a decade. That
should be good enough for HOF enshrinement, since ten stellar years (or fewer)
were good enough for the players I mentioned previously. According to the Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor, George
Foster is comparable to George Kell, Enos
Slaughter, Roger Maris, Tony Lazzeri, Home Run Baker and Tim Raines. According
to Baseball Prospectus BWARP, Foster is
comparable to hall-of-famers Ernie Lombardi and Charlie Gehringer.
Other "short but sweet" careers of interest ...
Dizzy Trout (49.6 WAR, 3.23 ERA, 124 ERA+, similar in WAR to Sandy
Koufax and Ralph Kiner, with a similar short but intense peak)
Charlie Keller (43.1 WAR, 152 OPS+, 5.95 WAR per 162 games,
15th in secondary average, top 25 for AB/RBI, lost four prime years
to military/injuries)
Pete Browning (40.4 WAR, .341/.403/.467/.869, OPS+ 163, 258 SB, 954 R, 659 RBI,
averaged 5.5 WAR, 225 hits, 131 runs and 90 RBI per 162 games)
Gavvy Cravath (33.0 WAR, .287/.380/.478/.858, OPS+ 151, his OPS+ ranks 30th tied
with Honus Wagner, he didn't play full-time until age 31)
Mike Donlin (29.2 WAR, .333/.386/.468/.854, 144 OPS+, 213 SB, 669 R, 543 RBI,
averaged 103 runs, 84 RBI and 33 steals per 162 games)
Benny Kauff (29.0 WAR, .311/.389/.450/.838, 149 OPS+, 234 SB, 521 R, 454 RBI,
averaged 5.5 WAR, 98 runs, 86 RBI and 44 steals per 162 games)
Tip O'Neill (25.4 WAR, .326/.392/.458/.851, 144 OPS+, 161 SB, 879 R, 757 RBI,
averaged 135 runs and 117 RBI per 162 games)
Dave Orr (27.3 WAR, .342/.366/.502/.867, his 162 OPS+ is 14th of all time,
comparable to Mark McGwire and Jimmie Foxx, but he only played eight years)
Lefty O'Doul (25.3 WAR, .349/.413/.532/.945, 143 OPS+, 36 SB, 624 R, 542 RBI,
didn't really play until age 31 but has the fourth-highest BA of all time)
Sam Mertes (23.3 WAR, .279/.346/.398/.744, 113 OPS+, 396 SB, 695 R, 721 RBI, a
great defender who averaged 95 runs, 98 RBI and 54 steals per 162 games)
Bill Lange (23.1 WAR, .330/.400/.458/.858, 123 OPS+, 400 SB, 691 R, 579 RBI,
retired at age 28 to marry respectably)
HOF Candidates Derailed by Injuries
An asterisk (*) means the player should definitely be in the Hall of Fame, in
my opinion. And please keep in mind that WAR undervalues catchers.
* Smoky Joe Wood is seventh all-time with a 146 ERA+ and had 117 wins by age 25.
After a serious injury cost him two years, he became an outfielder. He hit .366 at age 31, drove in 92 runs at age 32, then retired.
Bret Saberhagen (58.8 WAR, 167-117, 126 ERA+, but missed large parts of six
seasons due to injuries)
Dave Stieb (56.8 WAR but virtually done by age 32)
Will Clark (56.5 WAR, 137 OPS+ despite missing large chunks of eight seasons)
Dwight Gooden (52.9 WAR, 194-112, 111 ERA+, his best years were over by age 25
due to injuries and drug abuse)
Dustin Pedroia (51.7 WAR, 113 OPS+, four Gold Gloves, only six seasons with 140+
games played)
Johan Santana (51.7 WAR in a short career, his WAR7 of 45.0 puts him just a tick
behind Justin Verlander)
David Wright (50.4 WAR, 137 OPS+, had his last all-star season at age 30)
*
Thurman Munson (46.1 WAR, died at age 32, his 5.25 WAR per
162 games is third for catchers, after Johnny Bench and Mickey Cochrane)
Troy Tulowitzki (44.2 WAR, 121 OPS+, two Gold Gloves, only three seasons with
140+ games, had his last all-star season at age 30)
Nomar Garciaparra (44.2 WAR, 124 OPS+, perhaps the best shortstop of his generation when healthy)
*
Charlie Keller (43.1 WAR, 152 OPS+, 5.95 WAR per 162 games,
15th in secondary average, lost four prime years
to the military and
injuries)
* Don Mattingly (42.4 WAR, 127 OPS+, nine Gold Gloves)
Albert Belle (40.1 WAR, 144 OPS+, he hit 30 or more homers eight times and drove
in 100+ runs nine times with highs of 148 and 152 before retiring at age 33
with an arthritic hip, his .564 slugging percentage is the 13th highest of all
time)
Dave Parker (40.1 WAR, 121 OPS+, the Cobra had a stellar career despite drug, weight and injury
issues)
Roger Maris (38.2 WAR, 127 OPS+, derailed by injuries, he had his last all-star
season at age 27 and tailed off from there)
Eric Davis (36.1 WAR, in a 162-game stretch between 1986-87, he slashed .308/.406/.622
with 47 homers and 98 steals in 110 attempts!)
Grady Sizemore (27.3 WAR, had his last all-star season at age 25)
J. R. Richard (22.2 WAR, felled by a stroke that ended his career at age 30)
Tony Conigliaro (12.4 WAR, still fourth in homers through age 22, behind only Mel
Ott, Eddie Mathews and Alex Rodriguez)
WAR7 Highest Peaks
WAR7 helps us determine which players had the highest peaks. These are the
players with the highest peaks at their positions who are not in the HOF and
don't have known "PED issues." By comparing total career WAR with WAR7,
I can
determine the players who not only accumulated a ton of WAR, but who were also
the most dynamic at their respective positions during their prime years. The
names of the players who did both are bolded below. They deserve strong
consideration for the HOF, in my opinion. Minnie Minoso is a good example of an
underrated player who had a high peak for his position. According to WAR7, he
was comparable to Manny Ramirez and Joe Medwick. That is a high peak, indeed!
And Pete Rose's WAR7 tells us that in his prime he compared to Al Simmons, Ralph
Kiner and Goose Goslin. Let them both in!
Catcher: Joe Mauer (49.0), Thurman Munson (37.0),
Buster Posey (37.0)
First Base: Albert Pujols (61.7), Todd Helton (46.5), Joey Votto (46.0)
Second Base: Chase Utley (49.3), Bobby Grich (46.4), Dustin
Pedroia (42.4), Ian Kinsler (40.4)
Shortstop: Nomar Garciaparra (43.1), Jack Glasscock
(41.0), Jim Fregosi (41.0)
Third Base: Ken Boyer (46.3), Sal Bando (44.4), Scott Rolen (43.7), Graig Nettles (42.4)
Left Field: Pete Rose (44.9), Lance Berkman (39.3), Ryan Braun (39.2)
Center Field: Mike Trout (63.8), Andruw Jones (46.5),
Carlos Beltran (44.4), Kenny Lofton (43.4)
Right Field: Shoeless Joe Jackson (52.5), Ichiro Suzuki (43.7), Bobby Abreu (41.6)
Ye Olde Starting Pitcher: Jim McCormick (68.7), Tommy Bond
(62.7), Charlie Buffington (60.2), Bob Caruthers (55.7), Jim Whitney (54.7), Wes
Ferrell (54.7), Urban Shocker (44.8), Nap Rucker (44.8)
Modern Starting Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw (49.6), Curt Schilling (48.6),
Max Scherzer (47.2), Zack Greinke (46.9), Justin Verlander (46.0), Wilbur Wood
(45.7), Kevin Brown (45.2), Johan Santana (45.0)
If we're going to elect the most dynamic players who accumulated a lot of WAR
for their respective positions, according to WAR7 the order would look something
like this, leaving aside pitchers of yore: Mike Trout (63.8 and rising), Albert
Pujols (61.7), Shoeless Joe Jackson (52.5), Clayton Kershaw (49.6), Chase Utley
(49.3), Joe Mauer (49.0), Curt Schilling (48.6), Todd Helton (46.5), Bobby Grich
(46.4), Ken Boyer (46.3), Joey Votto (46.0), Pete Rose
(44.9), Carlos Beltran (44.4), Scott Rolen (43.7), Jack Glasscock (41.0), Thurman Munson (37.0).
Bradford Doolittle took the basic premise of WAR7 and extended it to ten years
of fWAR because that's time frame for HOF eligibility. It's interesting to see
which of Dolittle's "snubs" match my lists ...
Kevin Brown (57.8) --- Agree.
Dwight Gooden (56.3) --- I don't have Gooden this high.
Jim Whitney (55.6) --- It's hard to judge 1880s pitchers.
Jim Edmonds (53.6) --- Agree, but I have Kenny Lofton and Andruw Jones higher.
Graig Nettles (52.9) --- Agree.
Sal Bando (52.6) --- Agree.
Bobby Abreu (52.4) --- Agree, but I have other RF's higher.
Bobby Grich (52.4) --- Agree.
Bobby Bonds (51.3) --- I have Bonds slightly lower.
Mickey Lolich (51.3) --- I have several pitchers ranked higher than Lolich.
Keith Hernandez (51.0) --- Agree, although I have Todd Helton higher.
Wes Ferrell (50.6) --- Agree, at this position.
Bob Caruthers (50.4) --- It's hard to judge 1880s pitchers.
Rafael Palmeiro (50.3) --- Not on my list due to PED issues.
Sherry Magee (50.1) --- Agree, at his position.
Brian Giles (50.1) --- I have other RF's higher.
Ron Cey (50.1) --- Agree, but I have several 3B's higher.
My biggest "snubs" include Pete Rose (79.7), "Shoeless" Joe
Jackson (62.2), Curt Schilling (79.5), Jim McCormick (76.2), "Bad" Bill Dahlen (75.4),
Lou Whitaker (75.1), Bobby Grich (71.1), Scott Rolen (70.0), Kenny Lofton
(68.3), Kevin Brown (67.8), Ken Boyer (62.8), Andruw Jones (62.8), Jack Glasscock (62.0), Todd Helton (61.2), Keith Hernandez (60.4),
Bret Saberhagen (58.8), Fred McGriff (52.6), Dale Murphy (46.5), Thurman Munson (46.1), "Smoky" Joe
Wood (39.8)
Old-Timers Who Deserve Consideration
An asterisk (*) means the player should definitely be in the Hall of Fame, in my
opinion. And please keep in mind that WAR undervalues catchers. According to
FanGraphs, only one catcher, Johnny Bench, was among the top 60 position players
in career WAR. That tells me WAR is missing something where catchers are
concerned.
*
Jim McCormick (76.2 WAR, 265 wins in just ten seasons ... is there
anything to discuss, really?)
*
Bill Dahlen (75.4 WAR at shortstop is 7th all-time, comparable to Luke Appling, let him in!)
*
Lou Whitaker (75.1 WAR at second is 7th all-time, comparable to Frankie Frisch, let him in!)
*
Bobby Grich (71.1 WAR, at second is 8th all-time, 5.7 WAR per 162 games,
comparable to Ryne Sandberg)
*
Scott Rolen (70.2 WAR at third is 7th all-time, 5.6 WAR per 162 games, let him in!)
?
Rick Reuschel (69.5, 214-191, 3.37 ERA, 114 ERA+, only 23 more wins than losses,
but he played on bad teams with bad defenses)
*
Kenny Lofton (68.3 WAR, 1,528 runs, 622 steals, 5.5 WAR per 162 games, he compares favorably with Tim Raines)
?
Graig Nettles (68.0 WAR, but he only hit .248 with 110 OPS+ and just 32 steals
...)
?
Dwight Evans (67.1 WAR, eight Gold Gloves, 127 OPS+, he compares favorably with
a number of HOF right fielders)
?
Buddy Bell (66.3 WAR, 109 OPS+, six Gold Gloves, he compares with Graig Nettles
in this list)
?
Luis Tiant (66.0 WAR, 114 ERA+, 229-172, 3.30 ERA, 2,416 strikeouts)
?
Reggie Smith (64.6 WAR, 137 OPS+, Gold Glove, but lower counting numbers)
?
Ken Boyer (62.8 WAR, 116 OPS+, five Gold Gloves, he compares with Bell and
Nettles in this list)
?
David Cone (62.3 WAR, 194-126, 3.46 ERA, 121 ERA+)
?
Sal Bando (61.5 WAR, 119 OPS+, he compares with Bell, Nettles and Boyer)
?
Jim Edmonds (60.4 WAR, eight Gold Gloves, .527 slugging, 132 OPS+, his WAR is
higher than 8 HOF centerfielders)
?
Keith Hernandez (60.4 WAR, eleven Gold Gloves, 128 OPS+, but light on homers and
RBI for first base)
*
Bret Saberhagen (58.8 WAR, 167-117, 126 ERA+, despite missing large parts of six
seasons due to injuries)
?
Eddie Cicotte (58.4 WAR, 209-148, .238 ERA, 123 ERA+)
?
"Indian" Bob Johnson (57.3 WAR, 139 OPS+, drove in 100+ runs eight times despite
debuting as a 27-year-old rookie)
? Will Clark (56.5 WAR, 137 OPS+, one Gold Gove, but 284 homers and 1,205 RBI
are low for a HOF first baseman)
?
Orel Hershiser (56.0 WAR, a shooting star, perhaps, but an intensely bright one for six
years)
?
Vada Pinson (54.3 WAR, 2,757 hits, 1,365 runs, 305 steals, 256 homers, Gold
Glove defense)
?
Billy Pierce (53.4 WAR, 119 ERA+, 211-169, 3.27 ERA, 1,999 strikeouts)
?
Dizzy Trout (49.6 WAR, 3.23 ERA, 124 ERA+, Trout is similar in WAR to Sandy
Koufax and Ralph Kiner, with a similar short peak)
?
Dale Murphy (46.5 WAR, a two-time MVP, seven-time all-star, five Gold Gloves)
?
Vern Stephens (45.4 WAR, 119 OPS+, a superior RBI man at
shortstop with 130+ ribbies in his prime)
?
George "The Destroyer" Foster (44.2 WAR, 126 OPS+, was he the last player to hit 50+
homers honestly?)
? Carlos Delgado (44.4 WAR, 138 OPS+, 25th all-time in secondary average at
.419)
? Fielder Jones (43.2 WAR, 112 OPS+, 359 steals
?
Don Mattingly (42.4 WAR with a 127 OPS+ and nine Gold Gloves)
?
Darryl Strawberry (42.2 WAR, 138 OPS+, 335 homers, 221 steals, 24th in secondary
average at .420)
?
Dave Concepcion (40.1 WAR, he compares well with half the current HOF shortstops and won five Gold
Gloves)
?
Albert Belle (40.1 WAR, 144 OPS+, his .564 slugging percentage is the 13th highest of all
time and he had seasons with 148 and 152 RBI)
?
Maury Wills (39.7 WAR, 586 steals, two Gold Gloves and an MVP award the year he
stole 104 bases)
? Gavvy Cravath (33.0 WAR, .287/.380/.478/.858, his 151 OPS+ ranks 30th tied
with Honus Wagner, he didn't play full-time until age 31)
? Charley Jones (26.3 WAR, his 150 OPS+ is 33rd highest of all time, tied with
Nap Lajoie)
*
Dan Quisenberry (24.7 WAR, see notes below)
Dan Quisenberry's 5.98 WAR per relief appearance over 162 games is the highest
of the 43 non-HOFers with at least 200 career saves. He compares well with Bruce
Sutter, according to Bill James, who has said he would vote "yes" for
Quisenberry.
Other HOF Candidates:
Kevin Brown (67.8), Tony Mullane (66.5), Luis Tiant (66.0), Willie Randolph
(65.9), Jack Glasscock (61.6), Tommy John (61.5), Willie Davis (60.7), Wes
Farrell (60.7), Andy Pettitte (60.2), Sherry Magee (59.3), Darrell Evans (58.8),
Urban Shocker (58.3), John Olerud (58.2), Tim Hudson (58.1), Bobby Bonds (57.9),
Chuck Finley (57.9), Jim Wynn (55.9), Ron Cey (53.8), Bert
Campaneris (53.1), Jack Clark (53.1), Dwight Gooden (52.9), Cesar Cedeno (52.8),
Fred McGriff (52.6), Stan Hack (52.6), Babe Adams (52.2), Norm Cash (52.0), Jorge Posada (42.8), Babe Herman
(40.3), Steve Garvey (38.1), Cecil Cooper (36.0), Ted Kluszewski (32.4), Riggs
Stephenson (32.1), Don Baylor (28.5), Joe Carter (19.6)
Future Hall-of-Fame Candidates, by Age
Based on my "age analysis" below, I will go out on a limb and predict which
active players have the best chance to be elected to the Hall of Fame, starting
with the "most confident" and working my down:
Absolute Locks: Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander
Should Be Locks: Adrian Beltre, Miguel Cabrera, Max Scherzer
They Have the Stats: Ichiro Suzuki, Joey Votto, Joe Mauer, Zack Greinke,
Robinson Cano, C. C. Sabathia
On the Bubble?: Ian Kinsler, Evan Longoria, Buster Posey
On Track But Need to Keep Producing: Chris Sale, Nolan Arenado, Andrelton
Simmons, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve, Andrew McCutcheon, Cole
Hamels
Contenders: Yadier Molina, Madison Bumgarner, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Josh Donaldson, Jason Heyward,
Lorenzo Cain, Craig Kimbrel
Young But Immensely Talented: Mookie Betts, Manny Machado, Christian Yelich,
Cody Bellinger,
Francisco Lindor
Promising But Behind Schedule: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Bryce Harper, J.D.
Martinez, Jose Ramirez, Javier Baez,
Yasiel Puig
Derailed by Injuries: Dustin Pedroia, Troy Tulowitzki, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Upton
Slowing Down Too Soon? Felix Hernandez
Sleepers: Ryan Braun, Curtis Granderson, Ben Zobrist, Brett Gardner,
Nelson Cruz
By continuing to rake into his late thirties, Nelson Cruz may be building a case
for a serious HOF bid. But he didn't play 100 games until age 28 and didn't play
150 games until age 31, so his "counting" stats are not the best. On the other
hand, Cruz has averaged 38 homers, 106 RBI and 312 total bases per 162 games.
And his 131 OPS+ is nothing to sneeze at.
I think it's too soon to have confidence in Bryce Harper. He's had one
transcendent MVP season, mixed with a number of average-to-good seasons. Can he put
everything together for a number of years? That remains to be seen. But he is
23rd in secondary average. Cody
Bellinger certainly has the talent to be all hall-of-famer, but it's too soon to
say. Aaron Judge has had a late start and reminds me of George "The Destroyer"
Foster, the dominant slugger of his day, who didn't play enough to make the HOF.
I have noticed that a "differential" between career WAR and player age seems to
be a rough indicator of which players are making the most rapid progress, as
long as we keep in mind that there is going to be a "curve" as players get
older. I have bolded the numbers that stick out within particular age groups.
Mike Trout's 42.3 differential at age 27 is the most stunning, by far. Is he an
alien from the Land of Perfect Baseball? These calculations were done on June
21, 2019, as an experiment of sorts. They suggest that it's rare for a player
to exceed his age by 10 WAR before his 30th birthday (Trout, Betts, Stanton,
Sale). From age 31 to 36, a
handful of the very best players will come close to doubling their ages
(Kershaw, Greinke, Cabrera, Verlander, Cano). But in
a generation from age 25 to 45, not including known PED users, so far there have
only been four "outliers" who seem able to challenge 100 WAR: Albert Pujols,
Adrian Beltre, Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout. And Trout is literally flying in
another dimension. He has already passed Kershaw despite being four years
younger, and is now generating WAR at several times Kershaw's current rate.
Trout has already generated 70% of Pujols' WAR, and will probably pass him
around his age 30 season. At that point, if he's still playing, Pujols will be
42 years old. So, in effect, Trout will have "spotted" the greatest player of
the previous generation 10 to 12 seasons. That is truly unfathomable!
The results below also illustrate that player "rivalries" with Trout fall far
short of being materially true. An MVP season is typically around 8 WAR. Trout
is at least four MVP seasons better than the best
players under age 30. If Trout keeps having 10-WAR seasons, it's impossible for
anyone to catch him even if they somehow managed to string together some 11- and
12-WAR seasons. And it's not just his peers that Trout is leaving far behind. In
middle of his age 27 season, Trout had already passed 180 hall-of-famers in
career WAR, many of them in one-half to one-third the playing time.
Here are some of the baseball immortals
whose career WAR Trout passed in around one-third the playing time: Lloyd
Waner, Pie Traynor, "Wee" Willie Keeler, Joe Medwick,
Harmon Killebrew, Yogi Berra, Max Carey, Bill
Dickey, Gabby Hartnett, Enos
Slaughter, Orlando Cepeda, Tony Perez, Willie
Stargell, Luis Aparicio and Sam Rice.
Cody Bellinger (16.3 WAR at age 23) = -6.7
Carlos Correa (21.0 WAR at age 24) = -3.00 this is good for anyone not named
Trout
Francisco Lindor (25.9 WAR at age 25) = 0.9 even at age 25 is outstanding
Corey Seager (16.8 WAR at age 25) = -8.2 missed most of his age 24 season
Addison Russell (12.5 WAR at age 25) = -12.5
Luis Severino (11.8 WAR at age 25) = -13.2
Joey Gallo (8.3 WAR at age 25) = -16.7
Mookie Betts (40.3 WAR at age 26) = 14.3
Manny Machado (37.0 WAR at age 26) = 11.0
Bryce Harper (30.1 WAR at age 26) = 4.1 and 23rd in secondary average
Jose Ramirez (22.2 WAR at age 26) = -3.8
Javier Baez (14.8 WAR at age 26) = -11.2
Gary Sanchez (10.8 WAR at age 26) = -15.2
Blake Snell (9.8 WAR at age 26) = -16.2
Mike Trout (72.2 WAR at age 27) = 45.2 = This is insane! crazy!
otherworldly!
Christian Yelich (31.1 WAR at age 27) = 4.1
Kris Bryant (23.6 WAR at age 27) = -3.4
Aaron Judge (14.4 WAR at age 27) = -12.6
Nolan Arenado (36.1 WAR at age 28) = 8.1
Yasiel Puig (19.0 WAR at age 28) = -9.0
Giancarlo Stanton (39.7 WAR at age 29) = 10.7 and 28th all-time in secondary
average
Andrelton Simmons (35.9 WAR at age 29) = 6.9
Freddie Freeman (35.9 WAR at age 29) = 6.9
Jason Heyward (35.4 WAR at age 29) = 6.4
Jose Altuve (35.0 WAR at age 29) = 6.0
Madison Bumgarner (34.5 WAR at age 29) = 5.5
Anthony Rizzo (31.0 WAR at age 29) = 2.0
Anthony Rendon (23.6 WAR at age 29) = -5.4
Chris Sale (44.7 WAR at age 30) = 14.7
Elvis Andrus (31.3 WAR at age 30) = 1.3
Starling Marte (27.7 WAR at age 30) = -2.3
Clayton Kershaw (65.7 WAR at age 31) = 34.7 = Another alien like Trout?
Paul Goldschmidt (41.3 WAR at age 31) = 10.3 and 31st all-time in secondary
average
Justin Upton (35.1 WAR at age 31) = 4.1
J.D. Martinez (22.0 WAR at age 31) = -9.0
Craig Kimbrel (20.1 WAR at age 31, with 333 saves, a 1.91 ERA and 212 ERA+
should be judged on those criteria)
A.J. Pollock (19.5 WAR at age 31) = -11.5
Andrew McCutcheon (43.7 WAR at age 32) = 11.7
Buster Posey (41.2 WAR at age 32) = 9.2
Brandon Crawford (22.8 WAR at age 32) = -9.2
Charlie Blackmon (17.5 WAR at age 32) = -14.5
Evan Longoria (53.2 at age 33) = 20.2
Felix Hernandez (50.5 at age 33) = 17.5
Josh Donaldson (41.0 WAR at age 33) = 8.0
David Price (39.5 WAR at age 33) = 6.5
Lorenzo Cain (35.0 WAR at age 33) = 2.0
Jake Arrieta (26.0 WAR at age 33) = -7.0
Chris Davis (14.4 WAR at age 33) = -18.6
Max Scherzer (58.8 WAR at age 34) = 24.8
Troy Tulowitzki (44.2 WAR at age 34) = 10.2
Zack Greinke (69.2 WAR at age 35) = 34.1
Cole Hamels (59.4 WAR at age 35) = 24.4
Joey Votto (58.8 at age 35) = 23.8 and 29th all-time in secondary
average
Joe Mauer (55.0 WAR at age 35) = 20.0
Dustin Pedroia (51.7 WAR at age 35) = 16.7
John Lester (44.9 WAR at age 35) = 10.0
Brett Gardner (38.9 WAR at age 35) = 4.9
Hanley Ramirez (37.9 WAR at age 35) = 2.9
Alex Gordon (36.5 WAR at age 35) = 1.5
Brian McCann (32.0 WAR at age 35) = -3.0
Howie Kendrick (31.5 WAR at age 35) = -3.5
Jacoby Ellsbury (31.1 WAR at age 35) = -3.9
Miguel Cabrera (69.8 WAR at age 36) = 33.8
Robinson Cano (68.9 at age 36) = 32.9
Justin Verlander (66.6 WAR at age 36) = 30.6
Mark Buehrle (59.2 WAR at age 36) = 23.2
Yadier Molina (38.9 WAR at age 36) = 2.9
Russell Martin (37.7 WAR at age 36) = 1.7
Ian Kinsler (57.7 WAR at age 37) = 20.7
Adam Wainwright (38.8 WAR at age 37) = 1.8
Jose Bautista (35.9 WAR at age 37) = -1.1
Brandon Phillips (31.0 WAR at age 37) = -6.0
C.C. Sabathia (63.4 WAR at age 38) = 25.4
Curtis Granderson (48.8 WAR at age 38) = 9.4
Ben Zobrist (45.1 WAR at age 38) = 7.1
Nelson Cruz (34.9 WAR at age 38) = -3.1
Albert Pujols (100.0 WAR at age 39) = 61.00 = The greatest player of his
era, until Trout
Adrian Beltre (96.6 WAR at age 39) = 56.6
Tim Hudson (58.1 WAR at age 39) = 19.1
Torii Hunter (50.1 WAR at age 39) = 10.1
Ichiro Suzuki (59.4 WAR at age 45) = 14.4
The most underrated players not in the Hall of Fame ...
The "most unknown" or "least appreciated" player is listed first ...
Catcher: Wally Schang, Gene Tenace, Bill Freehan, Thurman
Munson, Jorge Posada
First Base: John Olerud, Will Clark, Todd Helton, Keith
Hernandez, Fred McGriff
Second Base: Bobby Grich,
Willie Randolph, Lou Whitaker, Jeff Kent
Shortstop: Bill Dahlen, Jack Glasscock, Jim Fregosi, Bert
Campaneris, Dave Concepcion
Third Base: Buddy Bell, Scott Rolen, Graig Nettles, Ken Boyer,
Sal Bando
Left Field: Sherry Magee, Indian Bob Johnson, Charlie
Keller, George Foster
Center Field: Willie Davis, Jim Wynn, Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmunds, Andruw
Jones, Johnny Damon
Right Field: Reggie Smith, Dwight Evans, Bobby Abreu, Roger Maris, Bobby Bonds
Designated Hitter: Jose Cruz, Gary Sheffield, Albert Belle,
Lance Berkman
Relief Pitcher: Billy Wagner, John Franco, Francisco Rodriguez
Starting Pitcher: Jim McCormick, Smoky Joe Wood, Kevin Brown,
Bret Saberhagen, David Cone, Roy Oswalt, Tony Mullane, Andy Pettitte, Luis Tiant, Rick Reuschel,
Tommy John
Candidates with Steroid Issues, or Possible Issues
The players below are listed in the order that I rank them for inclusion in the
HOF. I am not a fan of PEDs or players using them, but as I explained above, I
can't see banning one player for life when someone who did far worse things
soaks up the glory. I say let them all in, if they deserve it, and perhaps put
an asterisk after their names if it can be proved that they cheated. If cheating
can't be verified, "innocent until proven guilty" should apply. And what happens
if someone elected to the HOF turns out to have cheated? That seems likely to
happen, sooner or later.
Barry Bonds (162.4 WAR, 762 HR, 1,996 RBI, 182 OPS+)
Roger Clemens (139.2 WAR, 354-184, 4,672 SO, 3.12 ERA,
143 ERA+)
Alex Rodriguez (117.7 WAR, 696 HR, 2,086 RBI, 140 OPS+)
Rafael Palmeiro (71.6 WAR, 569 HR, 1,835 RBI, 132 OPS+)
Manny Ramirez (69.2 WAR, 555 HR, 1,831 RBI, 154 OPS+)
nineteenth all-time in secondary average
Robinson Cano (68.8 WAR, .303/.353/.491/.844, 126 OPS+)
Mark McGwire (62.2 WAR, 583 HR, 1,414 RBI, 163 OPS+)
fourth all-time in secondary average
Gary Sheffield (60.5 WAR, 509 HR, 1,676 RBI, 140 OPS+)
Andy Pettitte (60.2 WAR, 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 3,316 IP, 117 ERA+)
Sammy Sosa (58.4 WAR, 609 HR, 1,667 RBI, 128 OPS+)
Jason Giambi (50.5 WAR, 440 HR, 1,441 RBI, 139 OPS+)
Curtis Granderson (47.4 WAR, 339 HR, 920 RBI, 114 OPS+)
Miguel Tejada (47.3 WAR, 307 HR, 1,302 RBI, 108 OPS+)
Ryan Braun (46.6 WAR, 331 HR, 1,083 RBI, 136 OPS+)
Jose Canseco (42.2 WAR, 462 HR, 1,407 RBI, 132 OPS+)
Players in my Previous Top Tens who are now in the HOF, with my comments
before their election ...
David Ortiz could slug with the best of them: 55.4 WAR, 541 HR, 1,768 RBI,
141 OPS+. He averaged 36 homers and 119 RBI per 162 games. Ortiz is 27th
all-time in secondary average (.419) and compares with Frank Thomas, Willie McCovey and Tony Perez as a power-hitting RBI man. He will become eligible in 2022.
But there is a possible roadblock. Does Ortiz have something he hopes to keep
covered up that explains his "snitch" accusation against Mike Fiers? Fiers
helped expose the Astros' sign stealing scandal. Why would Ortiz use crime-gang
lingo to attack someone who told the truth? Is there some other truth
that he wants to keep under wraps? Something that requires a Mafia-like "code of
silence"? The Red Sox have been accused of cheating like the Astros. Ortiz was
included in baseball's Mitchell Report for testing positive for PEDs in 2003.
Will there be revelations about Big Papi and the Red Sox that hurt his HOF
chances? If not, he seems like a candidate to rise in these rankings. If so, who
knows? (Elsewhere, I predicted that Ortiz would be a first-ballot electee, due
to his popularity and counting stats, if something damning didn't turn up, which
proved to be the case.)
Derek Jeter should be inducted quickly, probably on the first ballot, when
he becomes eligible in 2020. With 72.4 WAR, a .310 career batting average and
3,465 hits, not to mention a clean slate and considerable popularity, a
first-ballot induction seems likely. Jeter compares with Barry Larkin and Robin
Yount and certainly merits induction, although his 115 OPS+ is not going to
challenge Honus Wagner, Arky Vaughn, Ernie Banks or his former teammate Alex
Rodriguez for primacy among slugging shortstops.
Larry Walker could and did rake: 72.6 WAR, .313/.400/.565/.965, 141 OPS+. Walker slashed well above
the average HOFer. Hell, his .565 slugging percentage is
second only to Babe Ruth among right fielders. Should Denver's mile-high air be counted
against him, when left-handed hitters thrive in Yankee Stadium? What about
Fenway Park and its fabled Green Monster? The three players with the highest
home OPSes—Babe Ruth, Ted Williams and Jimmy Foxx—played in those parks. And please keep in
mind that Walker's "sky-high" OPS+ is adjusted for the ballparks
he played in, as is his WAR. There is disagreement, however, as to whether such
adjustments account for the entire "thin air effect." On the other hand, Walker
slashed a very healthy .286/.386/.518/.905 on the road during his "rocky" years, and
there are many HOFers below his road levels. There are also HOFers with
similar home/road splits, such as Hank Greenberg and Chuck Klein. Is it fair to
penalize Walker when other great hitters have taken advantage of their home
parks? There is also the point that Walker was so much better than all the other
hitters who could have taken similar advantage of Coors Field. According
to Bill James, the player Walker most resembles is Duke Snider. He also compares
with Paul Waner, Sam Thompson and Sam Crawford. Furthermore, Walker had nearly
the same WAR as Reggie Jackson, in 3,400 fewer plate appearances! He was a
five-time all-star and three-time batting champion who won seven Gold Gloves and
the 1997 National League MVP award. A true five-tool player, he also had 230
steals. Walker was named on 54.6% of 2019 ballots;
that was quite a surge from 34.1% in 2018, so he's still in the running. But in his ninth year of eligibility, he's
starting to run short on time. Voters, please do the right thing and let him in!
Ted Simmons should be in the HOF; he's in the top ten catchers of all time, or
very close, comparing well with Mickey Cochrane, Buck Ewing and Ernie Lombardi.
Mariano Rivera definitely deserves to make it
on the first ballot, being the all-time saves leader with 652, not to mention
having a 2.21 ERA and all-time-best 205 ERA+. He compares to anyone, but no one
compares to him.
Chipper Jones could be a first-ballot inductee, with strong stats for a
third baseman: 85.0 WAR, .303/.401/.529, 468 HR, 1,623 RBI, 141 OPS+. He compares with
Eddie Matthews.
Mike Mussina had a 3.68 ERA, which is on the high side for the HOF, but 270 wins
and 83.0 WAR help his case. He compares with Ted Lyons.
Jeff Bagwell 79.9 WAR, 149 OPS+, 1,517 runs, 1,529 RBI, 449 homers, 202 steals,
eleven consecutive seasons of ~5 WAR or higher, a no-brainer for the HOF.
Jim Thome should be a lock for the HOF, with 612 homers. His stats are
impressive: 72.9 WAR, .276/.402/.554, 612 HR, 147 OPS+.
Alan Trammell 70.7 WAR, .285/.352/.415/.767 with 236 steals. Trammell ranks 9th
among HOF shortstops in WAR and definitely belongs in the HOF.
Tim Raines 69.4 WAR, 1,571 runs, 808 steals, 123 OPS+, seven-time all-star, one
of the top lead-off hitters of all time, should be a sure HOFer.
Roy Halladay should be a lock for the HOF with 64.3 WAR and such
a high peak with 50.6 WAR7. He won two Cy Young awards and his 131 ERA+
is in the top 30 for starting pitchers.
Vladimir Guerrero 59.3 WAR, .318/.379./.553/.931, 449 HR, 1,406 RBI with a 140
OPS+. Guerrero
has been knocking on the door and seems primed to enter.
Trevor Hoffman was knocking on the door with 74% of the vote in 2017, with
great stats for a reliever: 601 SAVES, 2.87 ERA, 141 ERA+. Hoffman ranks second
in all-time saves and vastly eclipses the relievers currently in the HOF: Dennis
Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Rich Gossage, Bruce Sutter, Hoyt Wilhelm.
Players that I had on the Bubble who are now in the HOF, with my
comments ...
?
Edgar Martinez 68.3 WAR, .312/.418/.515/.933 147 OPS+. Martinez slashes great,
but spent a lot of time at DH and had only 309 HR and 1,261 RBI.
?
Jack Morris fails to excite with 43.4 WAR, a 3.90 ERA and 105 ERA+, but 254 wins
gives him a case, and he had 14 years with 10+ wins.
? Lee Smith 28.9 WAR, 478 saves, 3.03 ERA, 132 ERA+. total WAR is obviously not
a good measure of relievers
? Harold Baines 38.7 WAR, 384 homers, 1,628 RBI, 121 OPS+, the most compelling
stat is the RBI but Baines never had a 5-WAR season)
High-WAR players no longer eligible in 2019 ...
Fred McGriff 52.6 WAR, .284/.377/.509/.886, 493 HR, 1,550 RBI, 134 OPS+
(McGriff's ten year window closed in 2019 with 39.8% of the HOF votes.)
Lance Berkman 52.1 WAR, .293/.406/.537/.943, 144 OPS+, 366 HR, 20th in
secondary average (Berkman didn't qualify with only 1.2% of votes his first year eligible, in 2019.)
Roy Oswalt 50.1 WAR, 163-102, 3.32 ERA, 2,245 IP, 127 ERA+ (Oswalt has a stellar
ERA+ but didn't qualify with only 1.2% of votes his first year eligible, in
2019.)
Other players who didn't make the cut in 2019: Miguel Tejeda, Michael Young, Placido Polanco,
Rick Ankiel, Vernon Wells, Jon Garland, Jason Bay, Derek Lowe, John Pierre,
Freddy Garcia, Ted Lilly, Travis Hafner, Kevin Youkilis, Darren Oliver
Other high-WAR players no longer eligible from prior years, with a plus
sign meaning "let him in!" and an asterisk meaning probable or possible PED
issues ...
+Pete Rose 79.7, 118 OPS+, the all-time leader in games, wins, hits and times on
base
+Jim McCormick 76.2 WAR, 118 ERA+, 265 wins in ten years
+Bill Dahlen 75.4 WAR, 110 OPS+, 548 steals, great defense
+Lou Whitaker 75.1 WAR, 117 OPS+, three Gold Gloves
*Rafael Palmeiro 71.9 WAR
+Bobby Grich 71.1 WAR, 125 OPS+, four Gold Gloves, 5.7 WAR per 162 games
+Ron Santo 70.5 WAR, 125 OPS+, five Gold Gloves
Rick Reuschel 69.5 WAR, 114 ERA+
+Kenny Lofton 68.3 WAR, four Gold Gloves, 1,528 runs, 622 steals
Graig Nettles 68.0 WAR, 110 OPS+, two Gold Gloves
+Kevin Brown 67.8 WAR, 127 ERA+
+Dwight Evans 67.1, 127 OPS+, eight Gold Gloves
Luis Tiant 66.0 WAR, 114 OPS+
Buddy Bell 66.3 WAR, 109 OPS+
Willie Randolph 65.9 WAR, 109 OPS+
Reggie Smith 64.6 WAR, 137 OPS+
Ken Boyer 62.8 WAR, 116 OPS+
David Cone 62.3 WAR, 121 ERA+
*Mark McGwire 62.2 WAR with the fourth best secondary average of all time
Tommy John 61.5 WAR, 111 ERA+
Sal Bando 61.5 WAR, 119 OPS+
Keith Hernandez 60.4 WAR, eleven Gold Gloves, 128 OPS+
Jim Edmonds 60.4 WAR, eight Gold Gloves, .527 slugging, 132 OPS+
Mark Buehrle 59.2 WAR, 214-160, 3.81 ERA, 3,283 IP, 117 ERA+
Darrell Evans 58,8 WAR, 119 OPS+
+Bret Saberhagen 58.8 WAR, 126 ERA+ (Saberhagen dominated when healthy.)
John Olerud 58.2 WAR, 129 OPS+
Chuck Finley 57.9 WAR, 115 ERA+
Bobby Bonds 57.9 WAR, 129 OPS+, 461 steals, 332 homers
Frank Tanana 57.1 WAR, 106 ERA+
Will Clark 56.5 WAR, 137 OPS+
Dave Stieb 56.4 WAR, 122 OPS+
Robin Ventura 56.1 WAR, 114 OPS+
Johnny Damon 56.0 WAR, 104 OPS+
Orel Hershiser 56.0 WAR, 112 ERA+
Jim Wynn 55.9 WAR, 129 OPS+
Chet Lemon 55.6 WAR, 121 OPS+
Kevin Appier 54.5 WAR, 121 ERA+
Jose Cruz 54.4 WAR, 120 OPS+
Vada Pinson 54.3 WAR, 111 OPS+
Jerry Koosman 53.6 WAR, 110 OPS+
David Wells 53.5 WAR, 108 ERA+
Billy Pierce 53.4 WAR, 119 ERA+
Bucky Walters 53.4 WAR, 116 OPS+
Jack Clark 53.1 WAR, 137 OPS+
Bert Campaneris 53.1 WAR, 89 OPS+, 649 steals
Dwight Gooden 52.9 WAR, 111 ERA+
Cesar Cedeno 52.8 WAR, 123 OPS+
Norm Cash 52.0 WAR, 139 OPS+
Luis Gonzalez 51.8 WAR, 119 OPS+
Brian Downing 51.5 WAR, 122 OPS+
Johan Santana 51.4 WAR, 139-78, 3.20 ERA, 2,025 IP, 136 ERA+
Toby Harrah 51.4, 114 OPS+
Brian Giles 51.1 WAR, 136 OPS+
Tony Phillips 50.9 WAR, 109 OPS+
Jamie Moyer 50.4 WAR, 269-209, 4.25 ERA, 4,074 IP, 103 ERA+
Kenny Rogers 50.4 WAR, 107 ERA+
Fred Lynn 50.2 WAR, 129 OPS+
Mark Langston 50.1 WAR, 107 ERA+
Wilbur Wood 50.0 WAR, 114 OPS+
Other Notable Players: Ellis Burks (49.8), Bernie Williams (49.6), Dutch Leonard
(49.0), Mickey Lolich (48.0), Ron Guidry (47.8), Devon White (47.3), Frank Viola
(46.9), Matt Williams (46.6), Dale Murphy (46.5), Mark Grace (46.4), Thurman
Munson (46.1), Rusty Staub (45.8), Tony Fernandez (45.3), Vida Blue
(45.1), Matt Holliday (44.8), Chuck Knoblauch (44.8), Bill Freehan (44.8), Rocky Colavito (44.5), Carlos Delgado (44.4), George Foster
(44.2), Nomar Garciaparra (44.2), Julio Franco (43.5), Fielder Jones (43.2), Charlie Keller (43.1), Dixie Walker (42.7), *Jose Canseco (42.5), Don Mattingly
(42.4), Darryl Strawberry (42.2), Curt Flood (41.9), "Sudden" Sam McDowell
(41.8), Fernando Valenzuela (41.4), Tim Salmon (40.6), David Justice (40.6),
Dave Concepcion (40.1), Dave Parker (40.1), Albert Belle (40.1), Moises Alou
(39.9), Reggie Sanders (39.8), Maury Wills (39.7), Lance Parrish (39.5), Boog
Powell (39.0), Paul O'Neill (38.9), Juan Gonzalez (38.7), Kirk Gibson (38.4),
Roger Maris (38.2), Steve Garvey (38.1), Frank Howard (37.6), Dusty Baker
(37.0), Eric Davis (36.1), Dick Groat (36.7), Carl Furillo (35.1), Shawn Green
(34.7), Ken Griffey Sr. (34.5), Willie McGee (34.2), Ron Gant (34.1), Bobby
Thomson (33.3), Rick Monday (33.1), Rico Carty (32.6), Ted Kluszewski (32.4),
Darin Erstad (32.4), Bobby Murcer (32.1), Andres Galarraga (31.7), Marty Marion
(31.6), Bill Russell (31.3), Greg Vaughn (30.8), Lew Burdette (28.6), Vic Wertz
(27.4), Jackie Jensen (27.9), Dave Orr (27.3), Elston Howard (27.0), Denny McClain (19.3),
R. A. Dickey (18.9), Don
Larsen (18.4)
For purposes of comparison, here are some HOFers with their career WAR: Lloyd
"Little Poison" Waner (24.1), "High Pockets" Kelly (25.2),
Jim Bottomley (35.3), Pie Traynor (36.2), Bill Mazeroski (36.2), Roy Campanella
(37.0), George Kell (37.4), Lefty Gomez (38.4), Phil Rizzuto (40.8), Catfish
Hunter (40.9), Earl Combs (42.5),
Rabbit Maranville (42.8), Chuck Klein (43.6), Sam Thompson (44.3), Lou Brock
(45.2), Dizzy Dean (45.8), Jim Rice (47.4), Sandy Koufax (48.9), Nellie Fox
(48.9), Ralph Kiner (49.4), Tony Lazzeri (49.9)
Pitchers ranked by wins and ERA+Roger Clemens (354 wins, 143
ERA+)
Curt Schilling (216 wins, 127 ERA+)
Smoky Joe Wood (146 ERA+, on track to be the best pitcher of all time, then came
back as an outfielder and excellent hitter after arm injuries)
Kevin Brown (211 wins, 127 ERA+)
Bret Saberhagen (167 wins, 126 ERA+)
David Cone (194 wins, 121 ERA+)
Roy Oswalt (163 wins, 127 ERA+)
Jim McCormick (265 wins, 118 ERA+)
Tony Mullane (284 wins, 117 ERA+)
Andy Pettitte (256 wins, 117 ERA+)
Luis Tiant (229 wins, 114 ERA+)
Tommy John (288 wins, 111 ERA+)
Related Pages:
Baseball Timeline,
Weird Baseball Facts and Trivia,
Weird Sports Trivia,
The Greatest Baseball Infields of All Time,
Is Mike Trout the GOAT?,
Best Baseball Nicknames,
Baseball's All-Time Leaders in WAR per Season,
Baseball's All-Time Leaders in WAR7,
Baseball Hall of Fame: The Best Candidates,
Why Pete Rose Should be in the Baseball Hall of Fame,
Big Red Machine Timeline/Chronology
The HyperTexts